Chinese property bubble


Chinese property bubble
An empty corridor in the mostly vacant New South China Mall.

The Chinese property bubble is an alleged ongoing real estate bubble in residential and/or commercial real estate in the People's Republic of China. The phenomenon has seen average housing prices in the country triple from 2005 to 2009,[1] possibly driven by both government policies and Chinese cultural attitudes.

High price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios for property and the high number of unoccupied residential and commercial units have been cited as evidence of a bubble. Critics of the bubble theory point to China's relatively conservative mortgage lending standards and trends of increasing urbanization and rising incomes as proof that property prices are justified.

Contents

Evidence

For bubble

  • Chinese property developers are now experiencing their own credit crunch due to Chinese government funding restrictions and fire sales are expected which will reduce prices rapidly [2] and individual property loans are also drying up [3]
  • Significant numbers of vacant or under-performing commercial and residential properties[4][5][6] and the continued construction of property despite these facts[7][8], including an estimated 64 million vacant apartments.[9]
  • High price-to-income ratios for real estate, such as in Beijing where the ratio is 27 to 1 years , five times the international average[10](27 to 1 is based on a double income household so 54 to 1 for a single income household of roughly 6,500USD/yr)
  • High price-to-rent ratios for real estate, such as in Beijing where the ratio is 500:1 months compared to the global ratio of 300:1 months[11] Homes are readily available in the Minneapolis area for 100 times the monthly rent
  • A weak secondary market for Chinese homes, with the ratio of secondary to primary residential property transactions at 0.26 for the first half of 2009 (four times as many new home purchases as secondary sales). Comparably, Hong Kong had a ratio of 7.25, and the U.S. had a ratio of 13.45.[12]
  • Chinese companies in the chemical, steel, textile and shoe industries opening real estate divisions, expecting higher returns than in their core businesses[13]
  • Residential housing investment as a share of China's GDP has tripled from 2% in 2000 to 6% in 2011, similar to the peak of the U.S. housing bubble.[14]

Against bubble

  • Home prices slowing or falling in Chinese cities[15].
  • Trends of increasing urbanization and rising incomes[16] in China that could continue to support real estate prices
  • Comparatively conservative mortgage lending practices, particularly in contrast to those at the height of the United States housing bubble[17]

City statistics

  • Shanghai
    • Real estate prices increased by over 150% between 2003 and 2010[18]
  • Tianjin
    • Projected to have more prime office space than can be absorbed in 25 years at the current rate[19]

Expert opinions

Supporting bubble theory

  • Standard & Poor's has downgraded its outlook for China real estate development sector to negative from stable, following a tightening of credit conditions in the country and slower sales.[20]
  • Cao Jianhai, professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who was quoted in an April 2009 report saying "Prices may not fall in the near term but I expect a collapse starting next year, followed by many years of stagnation."[21]
  • Andy Xie, independent Shanghai economist, who was quoted in a March 2010 report saying "China's property market is a massive bubble."[22]
  • Zhang Xin, CEO of Beijing real estate developer SOHO China, who was quoted in a January 2010 report saying "We don’t really have a view on when it will end; [but] we do have a view that this is a bubble."[23] Ms. Zhang does not expect a significant drop in pricing.

Opposing bubble theory

  • The World Bank, which said in a November 2009 report that Chinese home prices had not outpaced increases in incomes on a nationwide level, therefore dispelling worries of a looming bubble.[16] However, in its March 17, 2010 quarterly report, the group said China needed to raise interest rates to contain the risk of a property bubble.[24]
  • On April 6, 2011 the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Access China service released a follow up report to the October 2010 report ‘CHAMPS: China’s fastest-growing cities’ entitled ‘Building Rome in a day: The sustainability of China’s housing boom.[25] The report forecasts the population and average income in close to 300 Chinese cities, and the subsequent demand for housing in China which during the next decade. The report states that ‘with China’s property market being an important global economic indicator, China’s housing boom will present opportunities for investors in sectors such as furniture, cars and building materials.’ Regarding China’s urban population, the report forecasts that between 2011 and 2020 it will ‘increase by 26.1% or over 160 million people, while urban per head disposable incomes will increase by 2.6-fold to 51,310 RMB (about US$7,500 at current exchange rates).’[26]

Alleged causes

  • Low interest rates[27] and increased bank lending,[28] beginning in 2003 under Wen Jiabao which allowed cheap credit for the construction and purchase of property while making competing debt investments less appealing
  • Local government reliance on land sales for income (accounting for up to 50% of revenue), incentivizing the continued sale and development of land[29]
  • Limited access to foreign investments for Chinese citizens, increasing the appeal of domestic investments such as property[30]
  • Spending from the China economic stimulus program finding its way into real estate[23][31]
  • Cultural pressures encouraging home ownership, particularly for men seeking a wife[32][33][34][35]

Government response

In July 2011 the Chinese Government raised interest rates for the third time this year [36]

A new nationwide real estate sales tax was introduced in China in late 2009 as a measure to curb speculative investing.[37]

In early 2010, the Chinese cabinet announced it would monitor capital flows to "stop overseas speculative funds from jeopardizing China's property market" and also begin requiring families purchasing a second home to make at least a 40% down-payment.[38]

A mortgage discount for first-time property buyers – which had offered fixed, 5% 20-year mortgages at just above 4% – was also eliminated.[22]

In early 2011, Beijing banned the sale of homes to those who have not lived in Beijing for five years. Beijing also limited the number of homes a native Beijing family could own to two, and allowed only one home for non-native Beijing families.[39]

See also

References

  1. ^ Chovanec, Patrick (2009-06-08). "China's Real Estate Riddle". Far East Economic Review. http://www.feer.com/economics/2009/june53/Chinas-Real-Estate-Riddle. Retrieved 13 March 2010. 
  2. ^ Wall St Journal (2011-08-16). "Chinese property developers to feel funding crunch". http://Chinesecrash.com. http://www.chinesecrash.com/1/post/2011/08/chinese-property-developers-to-feel-funding-crunch.html. Retrieved 2011-08-16. 
  3. ^ "Chinese Property Loans Drying Up". http://Chinesecrash.com. http://www.chinesecrash.com/1/post/2011/07/post-title-click-and-type-to-edit4.html. Retrieved 2011-07-14. 
  4. ^ Javers, Eamon (2009-11-10). "Is China headed toward collapse?". Politico.com. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29330_Page2.html. Retrieved 2010-01-02. "And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing’s 'stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.'" 
  5. ^ Al-Jazeera (2009-11-09). "China's Empty City" (video). YouTube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk. 
  6. ^ Powell, Bill (2010-03-22). "China's Property: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble". Time. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284,00.html. Retrieved 13 March 2010. "In Beijing, vast swaths of commercial space sit vacant — including floors of retail space right next to the iconic Water Cube, the swimming venue for the 2008 Olympics." 
  7. ^ Cowen, Tyler (2009-11-28). "Dangers of an Overheated China". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/business/economy/29view.html. Retrieved 2010-01-02. "In Shanghai, the central business district appears to have high vacancy rates, yet building continues." 
  8. ^ Epstein, Gady (09-12-10). "The China Bubble". Forbes.com. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1228/economy-ponzi-debt-peking-china-bubble.html. Retrieved 2010-01-02. "As is typical in the later stages of property booms, many investors in China appear to have discarded rental yields as a measure of how much a building is worth in favor of greater-fool pricing. In downtown Beijing office towers sold this year for $400 per square foot, despite the fact that many were unleased and many more are under construction." 
  9. ^ "Crisis in China: 64 million empty apartments". AsiaNews. 15 September 2010. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Crisis-in-China:-64-million-empty-apartments-19459.html. Retrieved 9 August 2011. 
  10. ^ Xu Shenglan (2009-09-08). "An affordable home for every family, Chongqing official promises". Global Times. http://china.globaltimes.cn/society/2009-09/465135.html. Retrieved 2010-01-13. 
  11. ^ "Why Shanghai Real Estate Is The Most Obvious Bubble Ever". The Business Insider. 2010-01-13. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-is-the-most-obvious-bubble-ever-2010-1#prices-are-way-out-of-whack-compared-to-global-standards-3. Retrieved 2010-01-25. 
  12. ^ Chovanec, Patrick (2009-12-18). "China Goes Wrong Way on Property Taxes". http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2009/12/18/china-goes-wrong-way-on-property-taxes/. Retrieved 13 March 2010. 
  13. ^ Roberts, Dexter (2010-01-05). "China’s property bubble may lead to US-style real-estate slump". http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/bloomberg-specials/20525-chinas-property-bubble-may-lead-to-us-style-real-estate-slump.html. Retrieved 2010-01-07. "Companies in the chemical, steel, textile and shoe industries have started up property divisions, too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business." [dead link]
  14. ^ Thompson, Derek (16 March 2011). "Chart of the Day: Is This the Chinese Housing Bubble?". The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/chart-of-the-day-is-this-the-chinese-housing-bubble/72578/. Retrieved 9 August 2011. 
  15. ^ "The China Real Estate Boom May Be Finished: Now What? Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-real-estate-boom-is-finished-now-what-2011-6#ixzz1UW8lu8RV". Business Insider. 9 June 2011. http://www.businessinsider.com/china-real-estate-boom-is-finished-now-what-2011-6. Retrieved 9 August 2011. 
  16. ^ a b Oliver, Chris (2009-11-04). "World Bank sees no property bubble in China". MarketWatch. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-bank-sees-no-bubble-in-chinese-real-estate-2009-11-04. Retrieved 17 March 2010. 
  17. ^ Powell, Bill (2010-03-22). "China's Property: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble". Time. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284-2,00.html. Retrieved 13 March 2010. 
  18. ^ Barboza, David (2010-03-04). "Market Defies Fear of Real Estate Bubble in China". New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/business/global/05yuan.html. Retrieved 13 March 2010. 
  19. ^ Epstein, Gady (09-12-10). "The China Bubble". Forbes.com. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1228/economy-ponzi-debt-peking-china-bubble.html. Retrieved 2010-01-02. "Tianjin, a gritty metropolis not far from Beijing, will soon have more prime office space than will be filled in a quarter-century at the current absorption rate." 
  20. ^ "S&P Downgrades China Developers". http://www.chinesecrash.com”. http://www.chinesecrash.com/1/post/2011/06/sp-downgrades-china-developers.html. Retrieved 06/18/2011. 
  21. ^ "Property prices in China set to halve". The Irish Times. 2009-04-14. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0414/1224244628269.html. Retrieved 17 March 2010. 
  22. ^ a b Powell, Bill (2010-03-22). "China's Property: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble". Time. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284,00.html. Retrieved 13 March 2010. 
  23. ^ a b "Interview with a Chinese Real Estate Insider". China International Business. http://seekingalpha.com/article/185740-interview-with-a-chinese-real-estate-insider. Retrieved 1 February 2010. "We don’t really have a view on when it will end; [but] we do have a view that this is a bubble. Real estate is very much driven by government policy. This year we have RMB 4 trillion through the stimulus package, another RMB 6 trillion from municipality bonds, another RMB 10 trillion from bank loans: We have RMB 20 trillion in the system and it all finds its way to real estate." 
  24. ^ Leung, Sophie (2010-03-17). "China Must Pare Stimulus to Counter Bubbles, World Bank Says". Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aABUF7oOD4Hk. Retrieved 17 March 2010. 
  25. ^ "The Sustainability of China’s Housing Boom". http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=china_realestate_wp. 
  26. ^ "China property market ‘not a bubble’, says EIU in new report". http://www.sourcewire.com/releases/rel_display.php?relid=63938. 
  27. ^ Roberts, Dexter (2010-01-05). "China’s property bubble may lead to US-style real-estate slump". http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/bloomberg-specials/20525-chinas-property-bubble-may-lead-to-us-style-real-estate-slump.html. Retrieved 2010-01-07. "How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing’s half-trillion-dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available." [dead link]
  28. ^ "China's real estate bubble, a heated debate". Xinhua. 2010-01-14. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2010-01/14/content_12808553.htm. Retrieved 2010-01-13. 
  29. ^ Cohen, Roger (2010-01-25). "A Woman Burns". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/opinion/26iht-edcohen.html?pagewanted=2&ref=global. Retrieved 2010-01-25. 
  30. ^ "Real Estate Bubble in China? Part 1". BON TV. http://www.bonlive.com/11/62/1818-real-estate-bubble-in-china-part-1.shtml. Retrieved 1 February 2010. "Chinese investors don't have a lot of options that they're allowed. They can't invest overseas unless they already have money overseas. There is -- a lot of markets in China aren't well developed -- like there's no bond market in China. So, they can put their money in a bank and not earn very much. They can put their money in government bonds and not earn very much. They can put their money in the stock market, but they've seen over the past two years, if not before, that the stock market goes down as well as up....So, viewing these limited investment opportunities, people look at real estate and they say, 'You can't lose'. (9:50 - 11:00)" 
  31. ^ "Real Estate Bubble in China? Part 2". BON TV. http://www.bonlive.com/11/62/1819-real-estate-bubble-in-china-part-2.shtml. Retrieved 1 February 2010. "The government announced a big stimulus package that was about 486 billion U.S. dollars, but that actually was not the big stimulus. The big stimulus was they told the banks, 'Go out and lend', and the banks lent 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars this year and actually increased the money supply by more than a third in the process of doing that. A lot of this money, the evidence seems to indicate, made its way, whether intentionally or unintentionally, into the construction and property sector. (4:38 - 5:20)" 
  32. ^ Yu Tianyu (2010-01-04). "Price pressure on the home front". China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010-01/04/content_9258220.htm. Retrieved 2010-01-13. "If you're not able to settle down in Beijing, that's considered a big failure. In order not to fail, you have to buy an apartment in the city." 
  33. ^ Zha Minjie (2009-12-09). "Pitching a tent and a message". Shanghai Daily. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200912/20091209/article_422094.htm. Retrieved 2010-01-13. 
  34. ^ "Why Shanghai Real Estate Is The Most Obvious Bubble Ever". The Business Insider. 2010-01-13. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-is-the-most-obvious-bubble-ever-2010-1#there-are-also-demographic-factors-6. Retrieved 2010-01-25. 
  35. ^ "Blaming house bubble on mothers-in-law". Shanghai Daily. 2010-03-10. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201003/20100310/article_430703.htm. Retrieved 13 March 2010. 
  36. ^ "Attempts to stop the Chinese bubble". http://www.chinesecrash.com”. http://www.chinesecrash.com/1/post/2011/07/attempts-to-stop-the-chinese-bubble.html. Retrieved 07/22/2011. 
  37. ^ Anderlini, Jamil (2009-12-11). "China revives property tax to avert bubble". The Financial Times. http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/12/10/china.property.tax.ft/. Retrieved 2010-01-07. [dead link]
  38. ^ Mufson, Steven (2010-01-11). "In China, fear of a real estate bubble". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/10/AR2010011002767.html. Retrieved 2010-01-25. 
  39. ^ "Beijing issues new rules to limit house purchase". China Daily. http://www0.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-02/16/content_12028324.htm. 

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