Colorado gubernatorial election, 2010

Colorado gubernatorial election, 2010

2006 ← November 2, 2010 → 2014

Nominee John Hickenlooper Tom Tancredo Dan Maes Party Democratic American Constitution Republican Running mate Joseph A. Garcia Pat Miller Tambor Williams Popular vote 912,005 651,232 199,034 Percentage 51.01% 36.43% 11.13%

County results

Governor before election Bill Ritter Democratic Elected Governor John Hickenlooper Democratic

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who will serve a four-year term to begin in January 2011. John Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote^[1]. Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.^[2] Dan Maes claimed the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on Constitution Party candidate and former Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo to "stop your campaign tonight." John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Democratic primary

Announced

• John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver^[3][4]

Declined

• Bill Ritter, incumbent Governor^[5]
• Ken Salazar, United States Secretary of the Interior, former Senator^[6]
• Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives^[7]

Republican primary

Candidates

• Scott McInnis, lawyer, former Congressman from Glenwood Springs^[8]
• Dan Maes, businessman from Evergreen, claimed victory August 10 in the primary with 100% of precincts reporting^[9]

Results

Republican primary results[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Republican	Dan Maes	196,283	50.7%
	Republican	Scott McInnis	190,907	49.3%
Totals			387,253	100%

Declined

• John Suthers, Colorado Attorney General^[10]
• Josh Penry, State Senator^[11]
• Tom Tancredo, former Congressman^[12]

Pre-primary polling and developments

While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure," in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"^[13] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"^[14] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."^[15] Post-primary polling (see below), however, has shown growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

Poll source	Dates administered	Dan Maes (R)	Scott McInnis (R)
Public Policy Polling	August 7–8, 2010	40%	41%
Survey USA	August 1, 2010	43%	39%
Survey USA	June 15–17, 2010	29%	57%

Libertarian Party

Candidates

• Jaimes Brown^[16]
• Dan "Kilo" Sallis, 2008 vice presidential candidate of the Boston Tea Party^[17]

Results

Libertarian primary results[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Libertarian	Jaimes Brown	1,423	63.9%
	Libertarian	Dan Sallis	803	36.1%
Totals			2,226	100%

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

• Tom Tancredo, former Congressman^[18]

General election

Candidates

• Tom Tancredo (ACP)
  • For Lt. Governor: Former State Rep. Pat Miller
• Jaimes Brown (L)
  • For Lt. Governor: Ken Wyble
• Jason R. Clark (UAF)
• Paul Fiorino (I)
  • For Lt. Governor: Heather McKibbin
• John Hickenlooper (D)
  • For Lt. Governor: Colorado State University-Pueblo President Joe Garcia
• Dan Maes (R)
  • For Lt. Governor: Former State Rep. Tambor Williams

Polling and Predictions

Poll source	Dates administered	John Hickenlooper (D)	Dan Maes (R)	Tom Tancredo (ACP)
Public Policy Polling	October 30-31, 2010	47%	8%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	October 29, 2010	49%	5%	42%
Public Policy Polling	October 21-23, 2010	47%	5%	44%
Magellan Strategies	October 22, 2010	44%	9%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	October 15, 2010	42%	12%	38%
Rasmussen Reports	October 3, 2010	43%	16%	35%
Public Policy Polling	September 30-October 2, 2010	47%	13%	33%
Survey USA	September 28-30, 2010	46%	15%	34%
Fox News	September 25, 2010	44%	15%	34%
CNN/Time	September 17–21, 2010	47%	21%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2010	46%	21%	25%
Rasmussen Reports	August 29, 2010	36%	24%	14%
Ipsos/Reuters	August 20–22, 2010	41%	33%	16%
		45%	45%	––
Rasmussen Reports	August 11, 2010	43%	31%	18%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–8, 2010	48%	23%	22%
		50%	38%	––
Rasmussen Reports	August 2, 2010	42%	27%	24%
Survey USA	July 27–29, 2010	46%	24%	24%
		50%	41%	––
Rasmussen Reports	July 15, 2010	46%	43%	––
Survey USA	June 15–17, 2010	44%	45%	––
Rasmussen Reports	June 14, 2010	41%	41%	––

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Lean D[19]	November 1, 2010
Rothenberg	D favored[20]	October 31, 2010
RealClearPolitics	Leans D[21]	October 31, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Leans D[22]	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics	Leans D[23]	November 1, 2010
Rasmussen Reports	Leans D[24]	November 1, 2010

General election results

Colorado guberntorial election, 2010[25]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Hickenlooper	912,005	51.01%	-5.97%
	American Constitution	Tom Tancredo	651,232	36.43%	+35.80%
	Republican	Dan Maes	199,034	11.13%	-29.03%
	Libertarian	Jaimes Brown	13,314	0.74%	-0.75%
	Independent	Jason R. Clark	8,576	0.48%
	Independent	Paul Fiorino	3,483	0.19%
	Write-ins		86	0.00%
Majority			260,773	14.59%	-2.24%
Turnout			1,787,730
	Democratic hold		Swing

References

1. ^ Moore, John (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post. http://www.denverpost.com/recommended/ci_16506656. 
2. ^ The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/05/us/politics/AP-US-Colorado-Governor.html. ^{[dead link]}
3. ^ Bartels, Lynn (2010-01-12). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post. http://www.denverpost.com/newsheadlines/ci_14172465. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
4. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (2010-01-12). "Hickenlooper in - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0110/Hickenlooper_in.html. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
5. ^ Wilson, Reid (2008-12-08). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". The Hill. http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/salazar-ritter-get-set-for-re-election-bids-2008-12-02.html. Retrieved 2009-01-03. 
6. ^ Weisman, Jonathan (2010-01-06). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog). http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0110/salazar_wont_run_c915a54f-ce04-46d0-816d-307aecf7524a.html. Retrieved 2010-01-06. 
7. ^ Bartels, Lynn (2009-09-16). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post. http://www.denverpost.com/ci_13349882. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
8. ^ Fender, Jessica (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". The Denver Post. http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_12416157. Retrieved March 8, 2010. 
9. ^ ^{a b c} "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Governor/2010/CO. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
10. ^ Crummy, Karen E. (2009-01-26). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post. http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_11556575. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
11. ^ 7:58pm, EST. "First Read - CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527". Firstread.msnbc.msn.com. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/11/09/2123249.aspx. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
12. ^ "Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis". CBS4 Denver. 2009-11-23. http://cbs4denver.com/local/mcinnis.tancredo.Colorado.2.1329599.html. Retrieved 2010-01-06. 
13. ^ "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
14. ^ "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
15. ^ "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
16. ^ "Candidates - Libertarian Party of Colorado". Lpcolorado.org. http://lpcolorado.org/candidates/. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
17. ^ "TRACER - Candidate Detail". Tracer.sos.colorado.gov. http://tracer.sos.colorado.gov/PublicSite/SearchPages/CandidateDetail.aspx?Type=CA&SeqID=15711. Retrieved 2010-07-26. 
18. ^ Crummy, Karen E. (2010-07-22). "Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run". The Denver Post. http://www.denverpost.com/election2010/ci_15572320. Retrieved 2010-07-22. 
19. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. http://cookpolitical.com/senate. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
20. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
21. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
22. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-senate/. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
23. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
24. ^ "Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power". Rasmussen Reports. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/election_2010_senate_balance_of_power. Retrieved November 2, 2010. 
25. ^ http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/electionresults2010/general/ColoradoReport.html

External links

• Colorado Secretary of State - Elections Division
• Colorado Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Colorado Governor from Follow the Money
• Colorado Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial General Election: Dan Maes (R) vs John Hickenlooper (D) vs Tom Tancredo (i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Colorado Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Colorado Governor - McInnis vs. Hickenlooper from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Colorado Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Race Profile in The New York Times
• Collected news and commentary at Election 2010 at The Denver Post

Debate

• Colorado Republican Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, July 29, 2010

Official campaign websites

• Jason Clark for Governor
• Jaimes Brown for Governor
• John Hickenlooper for Governor
• Dan Maes for Governor
• Tom Tancredo for Governor