United States Senate elections in Mississippi, 2008

The U.S. state of Mississippi will hold elections for both of its United States Senate seats on November 4 2008. Senators serve six-year terms, and elections are typically rotated so that each state elects no more than one senator at a time. However, both Mississippi seats are up for election this year, due to the December 2007 resignation of Class I Senator Trent Lott.

The seat held by Class II Senator Thad Cochran is up for election as regularly scheduled. Cochran, the state's senior senator, is running for his sixth consecutive term. He ran unopposed in the Republican primary. In the November general election, he will face former State Representative Erik R. Fleming, who defeated Shawn O'Hare in the Democratic primary with 66% of the vote.

A non-partisan special election will be held on the same day as the general election to fill the vacancy left by Lott's resignation. The winner will serve the remainder of Lott's term, until the next Class I election in 2012. The seat is temporarily held by Roger Wicker, a former Republican congressman who was appointed as interim senator after Lott's resignation. Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, a former Mississippi governor, will be among the candidates on the November ballot. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will face each other in a runoff election that will determine the winner.

The scheduling of the special election was challenged in court. The state's attorney general argued that the election should be held in March 2008, and a circuit court judge agreed; however, the decision was overturned by the Mississippi Supreme Court.

Election for Class II senate seat

Thad Cochran is running for reelection for the Class II senate seat he presently occupies, and was unopposed within the Republican party. [cite news
title=Editorial
work=Clarion-Ledger
date=March 9, 2008 ] Erik Fleming won the Democratic nomination in the March 11 2008 primary, winning 65.8% of the vote to opponent Shawn O'Hara's 34.2%. [ [http://www.sos.state.ms.us/Elections/2008/Primary/Democratic.asp Election results from the Mississippi Secretary of State] ]

The general election to fill this office will take place on November 4 2008, with Cochran and Fleming on the ballot. "CQ Politics" rates the race as 'Safe Republican'. [ [http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=senate-MS-A Mississippi, U.S. Senate] "CQ Politics"] "The Cook Political Report" considers it 'Solid Republican'. [ [http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/senate/raceratings_2008-08-21_13-07-35.php 2008 Senate Race Ratings] "The Cook Political Report", September 18, 2008] "The Rothenberg Political Report" considers it a 'Safe Republican'. [ [http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/09/2008-senate-ratings.html 2008 Senate Ratings] "The Rothenberg Political Report", July 19, 2008]

Candidates

Republican

* Thad Cochran (incumbent)

Democratic

* Erik R. Fleming, nominee
* Shawn O'Hara, lost in primary

Polls

Special election for Class I senate seat

On December 18, 2007, U.S. Senator Trent Lott resigned his Class I senate seat in his fourth term to pursue "something else" in the private sector. [cite news |author=Nossiter, Adam and Herszenhorn, David M. |title=Mississippi’s Lott to Leave Senate Seat |url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/27/washington/27lott.html |publisher=The New York Times |date=November 26, 2007 ] [cite news
title=Lott Officially Resigns, All Eyes Now on Barbour
first=Rachel
last=Kapochunas
url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002646810
work=Congressional Quarterly
date=December 19, 2007
accessdate=2008-05-18] He went on to start a lobbying firm with former U.S. Senator John Breaux of Louisiana, converting his campaign reelection fund to a Political Action Committee. [cite news
title=Lott intends to keep clout on Capitol Hill
first=Ana
last=Radelat
work=Hattiesburg American
date=April 18, 2008
url=http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080418/NEWS01/804180367/1002
accessdate=2008-05-17]

On December 31, 2007, Mississippi governor Haley Barbour appointed Roger Wicker to the seat vacated 13 days earlier by Sen. Trent Lott. Wicker then began his senate campaign. [ [http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS/80101004 Wicker launches Senate campaign | clarionledger.com | The Clarion-Ledger ] ]

Early speculation suggested that Ronnie Musgrove, Mike Espy, Harvey Johnson, Jr., Ray Mabus, and Mike Moore may run for the Democrats [http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS/80101004 "Wicker Launches Senate Campaign"] , The Clarion-Ledger, Jan 1, 2008] [ [http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080107/pl_cq_politics/politics2652582 Democrat Finally Jumps into Mississippi Senate Race] Yahoo! News Jan 7, 2008] , however only former governor Musgrove of the five decided to run. Another Democrat, former congressman Ronnie Shows also decided to run, [ [http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080105/NEWS01/80105012 Associated Press via The Hattiesburg American, January 5, 2008] ] but withdrew on February 19, 2008 after determining that he could not raise enough funds to effectively campaign against Wicker and Musgrove. Shows gave his endorsement to Musgrove. [ [http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080220/NEWS/802200366/1001/news Shows out of Senate race for Lott's seat | clarionledger.com | The Clarion-Ledger ] ]

"CQ Politics" rates this race as 'No Clear Favorite'. [ [http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate Race Ratings Chart: Senate] "CQ Politics"] "The Cook Political Report" considers it 'Toss Up'. [ [http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/senate/raceratings_2008-10-09_12-20-35.php 2008 Senate Race Ratings] "The Cook Political Report", October 9, 2008] "The Rothenberg Political Report" considers it a 'Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party'. [ [http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/09/2008-senate-ratings_29.html 2008 Senate Ratings] "The Rothenberg Political Report", September 29, 2008]

Election date controversy

After Wicker's interim appointment, a nonpartisan special election was required for a permanent replacement. There was a dispute about the date on which this should occur that boiled down to an interpretation of a Mississippi statute.cite web
date= 2007-12-31
last= Case
first= Bert
url= http://www.wlbt.com/Global/story.asp?S=7562258&nav=2CSf
title= AG Challenges Timing of Senate Election
publisher= WLBT
accessdate= 2008-06-28
quote= ] After being notified of the resignation, Barbour had 100 days [10 days to announce when the election occurs, which then must occur before an additional 90 days have elapsed.] to set an election unless the vacancy occurs in a year when “there shall be held a general state or congressional election.”cite web
date= 2008-02-11
last= Elliott Jr.
first= Jack
url= http://www.leadercall.com/opinion/local_story_042095425.html
title= Miss. Supreme Court wades into quandary and Barbour prevails — this time
publisher= The Associated Press
accessdate= 2008-06-28] [cite web
url= http://www.mscode.com/free/statutes/23/015/0855.htm
title= SEC. 23-15-855. Elections to fill vacancies in office of U.S. Senator; interim appointments by Governor.
publisher= LawNetCom, Inc.
accessdate= 2008-06-28
quote= ... shall be held within ninety (90) days ... unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor's proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator [.] ]

Barbour argued that the rule meant "unless there is a general election within the next 365 days" whereas Mississippi Attorney General Democrat Jim Hood said it meant "unless the vacancy occurs in the same calendar year as a general election". Hood argued that the vacancy occurred in 2007 but the 2007 general election had already passed, and, therefore, the exception (the "unless") did not hold and the election had to be set within the statutory 100 days. He wanted the date of the special election to be March 11, 2008, the same day as Mississippi's presidential primary. Barbour, under his reading, set the special election the same day as the presidential election, November 4, 2008, which he maintained would provide greater voter participation since they have a higher turnout than primary elections.cite web
date= 2008-02-07
last= Harrison
first= Bobby
url= http://www.djournal.com/pages/archive.asp?ID=265388
title= Court upholds Barbour’s Nov. 4 date for election
publisher= Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal
accessdate= 2008-06-28] The issue went to court for resolution.

The Hinds County Circuit Court, siding with Hood, found the language of the statue unambiguous, and ruled that the election must take place no later than March 19.cite web
date= 2008-01-16
url= http://www.wlbt.com/Global/story.asp?S=7690497&nav=menu119_2
title= Barbour's Attorney Appeals Special-Elex Ruling
publisher= WLBT
accessdate= 2008-06-28] [cite web
date= 2008-01-14
pages= p. 7
url= http://www.mssc.state.ms.us/Images/Opinions/CO47168.pdf
title= Haley Barbour, Governor of the State of Mississippi v. The State of Mississippi Ex Rel. Attorney General Jim Hood
format= PDF
publisher= Supreme Court of Mississippi
accessdate= 2008-06-28] However, on February 6, 2008 after Barbour appealed, the Mississippi Supreme Court reversed the Circuit judge and ruled that the election may be held on November 4. The majority determined the language to be ambiguous and hence Barbour's interpretation was permissible. The dissenters said the majority "neglected the plain, commonsense language of the law", calling the opinion "gobbledygook".

From a political perspective, a later election would provide Wicker more time to campaign and to prove himself in the Senate whereas an earlier election would have accordingly limited that benefit while possibly providing a better known candidate such as Musgrove the advantage of name recognition.cite web
date= 2008-01-02
last= Kalahar
first= Jon
url= http://www.wlbt.com/Global/story.asp?S=7568072&nav=menu119_3
title= Hood Files Suit to Have Special Election Earlier
publisher= WLBT
accessdate= 2008-06-28
quote = An earlier election would give newly appointed Senator Roger Wicker less time to campaign and more opportunity for a candidate with more ane [sic] recognition to win a special election. With a November election, Wicker will have time to show Mississippians what he can do in the senate as well as campaign across the state.]

Candidates

In the nonpartisan special election for the Class I senate seat, candidates will be listed on the ballot without their party affiliation. [See the [http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sos.state.ms.us%2FElections%2F2008%2FFirst%2520Congressional%2520Special%2520Election%2FCongressional%2520Election%2520PDF%2F1st%2520Congressional%2520District%2520Special%2520Election%2520Runoff%2520Sample%2520Ballot.pdf&ei=j608SJmiDIKOsQOXx4XODQ&usg=AFQjCNHKOo56xUEdu2TZ6jIGhOJX7hiO3g&sig2=MZjgeg6xGvo5bRjWyswQHw official sample ballot] from the May 2008 special election for Congress.]

Republican

* Roger Wicker of Tupelo (Republican incumbent, former congressman from ushr|Mississippi|1)

Democratic

*Ronnie Musgrove of Madison (former governor)
*Ronnie Shows of Bassfield (former congressman from ushr|Mississippi|4), withdrew and endorsed Musgrove

Polls

ee also

* United States Senate elections, 2008
* Mississippi's 1st congressional district special election, 2008, an election to fill Roger Wicker's former U.S. House of Representatives seat.
* Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2007

References

External links

* [http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/elections.asp Elections Division] from the "Mississippi Secretary of State"
* [http://www.votesmart.org/election_congress_state.php?state_id=MS&go33.x=9&go33.y=9 U.S. Congress candidates for Mississippi] at Project Vote Smart
* [http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=senate-MS Mississippi, U.S. Senate] from CQ Politics
* [http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=243 Mississippi U.S. Senate] from "OurCampaigns.com"
* [http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/MS-Sen Mississippi U.S. Senate race] from "2008 Race Tracker"
* [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=MSS1&cycle=2008 Campaign contributions] from OpenSecrets.org
* [http://www.pollster.com/08-MS-Sen-GE-CvF.php Cochran (R-i) vs Fleming (D)] graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
* [http://www.pollster.com/08-MS-Sen-GE-WvM.php Wicker (R-i) vs Musgrove (D)] graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
*"Official campaign websites"
** [http://www.thadforsenate.com/ Thad Cochran] , Republican
** [http://erikfleming.org/index2.html Erik Fleming] , Democratic
** [http://musgroveforsenate.net Ronnie Musgrove] , Democratic
** [http://www.wickerforsenate.com Roger Wicker] , Republican
* [http://www.therealwicker.com/ The Real Roger Wicker site critical of Wicker] by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
* [http://www.musgrovefacts.com/ Musgrove Facts site critical of Musgrove] by the National Republican Senatorial Committee