- Victory disease
Victory disease afflicts
military commanders and armies who, after victories, become weak and susceptible to defeat [http://www.army.mil/professionalwriting/volumes/volume1/september_2003/9_03_5.html] .igns
The signs are:
*arrogance ,
*overconfidence ,
* ,
* use of previously victorious patterns of fighting, "and" not developing new tactics to anticipate enemy advances,
*stereotypes of enemies, underestimating enemies,
*ignorance of contrary intelligence or refusal to recognize it.While the winning side grows complacent, arrogant, feeling , the enemy adapts. Military disaster ensues.While "victory disease" does not automatically foretell failure, it is a strong indicator. The term applies outside the military world (see references).
Origin
The origin of the term ("(戦勝病 senshoubyou)" in Japanese, [http://groups.google.hu/group/soc.history.war.world-war-ii/browse_thread/thread/109cee3784b63713] ) is associated with the
Japan ese advance in the Pacific Theater ofWorld War II , where, after attacking Pearl Harbor in 1941, they won a series of nearly uninterrupted victories against theAllies inSoutheast Asia and thePacific [http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/199903/victory-at-sea/3] , [http://books.google.com/books?id=GZCNhrm9eOYC&pg=PA17&lpg=PA17&dq=%22Victory+Disease%22&source=web&ots=MdG3-CFSbe&sig=yhamaYsO7WwY9toggaJ66nL1-ng&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=6&ct=result#PPA18,M1] .Although they had planned to establish a perimeter and go on the defensive, victories encouraged them to continue expanding to where it strained
logistics andnavy . This led to 1942'sBattle of Midway , a catastrophic defeat to theJapanese navy — all four of theiraircraft carrier s involved were sunk. The decision of Japan to start a war against theUnited States is viewed as victory disease.Examples
* The
Battle of Salamis in 480 BC in theGreco-Persian Wars , in which thehubris of Xerxes I led to the defeat of thePersian Empire by the Greeks.* Spanish naval assault on
England in 1588 suffered the defeat of the "unsinkable"Spanish Armada * The decision of
Napoleon to invadeRussia in 1812. A force of about 500,000 Frenchsoldier s invaded, and about 20,000 returned.* United States victories in the
Mexican–American War and theIndian Wars made Union forces over-confident going into theAmerican Civil War , losing their first battle — they expected a quick victory. The Confederates similarly stereotyped the Union, at times leading to military disaster.* Confederate decisions made at and before their loss at the
Battle of Gettysburg , after their outnumbered-five-to-two victory at theBattle of Chancellorsville during the Civil War.* The 1876
Battle of the Little Bighorn , in which theSioux nearly annihilated the entire7th Cavalry ofLt. Col. George Armstrong Custer . Expecting a repeat of theBattle of Washita River , Custer ignored contrary intelligence or did not seek it out.* The catastrophic decision of
Hitler to invade the Soviet Union in 1941, underestimating Soviet military resilience, counting on success of old tactics.* Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor on
December 7 ,1941 . This followed wins in theSino-Japanese War (1894-1895) and the 1904-1905Russo-Japanese War .ee also
*
Groupthink
*Hubris
*Communal reinforcement
*Confirmation bias
*Narcissism External links
* [http://www.army.mil/professionalwriting/volumes/volume1/september_2003/9_03_5.html U.S. Army Professional Writing Collection on victory disease]
* [http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army/csi_karcher_victory.pdf Long article from the US military with much on Little Bighorn & Task Force Ranger]
* [http://www.bartleby.com/65/na/Napoleon1.html On Napoleon's disaster]
* [http://groups.google.hu/group/soc.history.war.world-war-ii/browse_thread/thread/109cee3784b63713 Origin of the term]
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