Outcome bias

Outcome bias

The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.

Overview

One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. This is an error because no decision maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. The actual outcome of the decision will often be determined by chance, with some risks working out and others not. Individuals whose judgments are influenced by outcome bias are seemingly holding decision makers responsible for events beyond their control.

Baron and Hershey (1988) presented subjects with hypothetical situations in order to test this.[1] One such example involved a surgeon deciding whether or not to do a risky surgery on a patient. The surgery had a known probability of success. Subjects were presented with either a good or bad outcome (in this case living or dying), and asked to rate the quality of the surgeon's pre-operation decision. Those presented with bad outcomes rated the decision worse than those who had good outcomes.

The reason why an individual makes this mistake is that he or she will incorporate presently available information when evaluating a past decision. To avoid the influence of outcome bias, one should evaluate a decision by ignoring information collected after the fact and focusing on what the right answer is, or was at the time the decision was made.

See also

References

  1. ^ Baron J. & Hershey J.C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol 54(4) Apr, 569-579.

Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

Игры ⚽ Поможем сделать НИР

Look at other dictionaries:

  • Positive outcome bias — There are two cognitive biases which might be called the positive outcome bias:* Publication bias, the tendency for researchers to publish research which had a positive outcome. Positive in this sense means eventful as opposed to uneventful *… …   Wikipedia

  • Bias — This article is about different ways the term bias is used . For other uses, see Bias (disambiguation). Bias is an inclination to present or hold a partial perspective at the expense of (possibly equally valid) alternatives. Bias can come in many …   Wikipedia

  • Bias — In a clinical trial, bias refers to effects that a conclusion that may be incorrect as, for example, when a researcher or patient knows what treatment is being given. To avoid bias, a blinded study may be done. * * * 1. Systematic discrepancy… …   Medical dictionary

  • bias — I. noun Etymology: Middle French biais Date: 1530 1. a line diagonal to the grain of a fabric; especially a line at a 45 degree angle to the selvage often utilized in the cutting of garments for smoother fit 2. a. a peculiarity in the shape of a… …   New Collegiate Dictionary

  • Selection bias — is a statistical bias in which there is an error in choosing the individuals or groups to take part in a scientific study.[1] It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The term selection bias most often refers to the distortion of a… …   Wikipedia

  • Experimenter's bias — In experimental science, experimenter s bias is subjective bias towards a result expected by the human experimenter. David Sackett,[1] in a useful review of biases in clinical studies, states that biases can occur in any one of seven stages of… …   Wikipedia

  • Publication bias — is the tendency of researchers, editors, and pharmaceutical companies to handle the reporting of experimental results that are positive (i.e. showing a significant finding) differently from results that are negative (i.e. supporting the null… …   Wikipedia

  • Confirmation bias — (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true.[Note 1][1] As a result, people gather evidence and recall …   Wikipedia

  • Sampling bias — In statistics, sampling bias is when a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended population are less likely to be included than others. It results in a biased sample, a non random sample[1] of a population (or non human… …   Wikipedia

  • Cognitive bias — For an article about the conceptual problems of the mind see Cognitive closure (philosophy). Psychology …   Wikipedia

Share the article and excerpts

Direct link
Do a right-click on the link above
and select “Copy Link”