Ontario general election, 2011

Ontario general election, 2011
Ontario general election, 2011
Ontario
2007 ←
members
October 6, 2011
members
→ 41st

107 seats in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
  Dalton McGuinty Crop 2.jpg Tim Hudak (cropped).jpg AndreaHorwath.png
Leader Dalton McGuinty Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath
Party Liberal Ontario PC New Democrat
Leader since December 1996 July 2009 March 2009
Leader's seat Ottawa South Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre
Last election 71, 42.25% 26, 31.62% 10, 16.76%
Seats before 70 25 10
Seats won 53 37 17
Seat change -17 +12 +7
Popular vote 1,622,426 1,527,959 980,204
Percentage 37.62% 35.43% 22.73%
Swing -4.63% +3.81% +5.96%

Ontario2011.png


Premier before election

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

Elected Premier

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

The 40th Ontario general election was held on October 6, 2011 to elect members of the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. The Ontario Liberal Party will form a minority government, with the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC Party) serving as the Official Opposition and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) serving as a third party.

Under amendments passed by the Legislature in December 2005, Ontario elections are now held on fixed dates: the first Thursday of October every four years.[1] The writ of election was issued by Lieutenant Governor David Onley on September 7, 2011.

The election saw a record low voter turnout of 49.2%.[2]

Contents

Timeline

2007
2008
2009
  • January 9, 2009: Progressive Conservative MPP Laurie Scott announces her resignation from the legislature to allow party leader John Tory, who has been without a seat since his defeat in Don Valley West in the 2007 election, to re-enter the legislature.
  • March 5, 2009: In the Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock by-election following Scott's resignation, Tory is defeated by Liberal candidate Rick Johnson.
  • March 6, 2009: John Tory resigns as Progressive Conservative leader pending the selection of an interim party leader.
  • March 7, 2009: Andrea Horwath is elected leader of the Ontario NDP at the party's 2009 leadership convention.
  • June 27, 2009: Tim Hudak is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative party at its 2009 leadership election and also becomes the new Leader of the Opposition.
  • September 17, 2009: Eric Hoskins is elected as the MPP for the riding of St. Paul's following the resignation of Michael Bryant on June 7, 2009.
  • November 4, 2009: Mike Schreiner is affirmed as the new leader of the Green Party of Ontario, receiving 97% approval from the party membership defeating the None of the Above ballot option, in the 2009 leadership election.
2010
2011

Party leadership

In March 2009, PC Party leader John Tory stepped down as leader, with Tim Hudak elected to be his successor. Also in March 2009, Andrea Horwath replaced Howard Hampton as leader of the NDP at the leadership election. Thus, both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP will go into the election with a new leader. Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong stepped down in November 2009; their leadership convention confirmed Mike Schreiner as their new leader. Dalton McGuinty won 95 percent support for his leadership at an Ontario Liberal annual general meeting after the 2007 election, and ran again in 2011.

Results by party

e • d Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario election results
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2007 Dissol. 2011 Change # % Change
     Liberal Dalton McGuinty 107 71 70 53 -18 1,622,426 37.63% -4.62%
     Progressive Conservative Tim Hudak 107 26 25 37 +11 1,527,959 35.44% +3.82%
     New Democratic Andrea Horwath 107 10 10 17 +7 980,204 22.74% +5.97%
     Green Mike Schreiner 107 - - 126,567 2.94% -5.08%
     Libertarian Sam Apelbaum 51 - - 19,387 0.45% +0.24%
     Family Coalition Phil Lees 31 - - 9,861 0.23% -0.58%
     Freedom Paul McKeever 57 - - 9,285 0.22% +0.15%
     Independents and no affiliation 36 - - 9,177 0.21% +0.02%
     Communist Elizabeth Rowley 9 - - 1,163 0.03% -0.01%
     Northern Ontario Heritage Edward Deibel 3 - - 683 0.02% N/A
     Special Needs Danish Ahmed 4 - - 667 0.02% +0.01%
     Reform Bradley J. Harness 4 - - 645 0.02% +0.01%
     Confederation of Regions vacant 3 - - 559 0.01% +0.00%
     Paramount Ranvir Dogra 4 - - 548 0.01% N/A
     People's Kevin Clarke 4 - - 386 0.01% N/A
     Socialist Andy Lehrer 5 - - 369 0.01% N/A
     Vegan Environmental Paul Figueiras 3 - - 366 0.01% N/A
     Republican Trueman Tuck 3 - - 232 0.01% -0.00%
     The Only Party Michael Green 3 - - 188 0.00% N/A
     Human Rights Marilyn McCormick 2 - - 170 0.00% N/A
     Canadians' Choice Bahman Yazdanfar 3 - - 156 0.00% N/A
     Paupers John C. Turmel 2 - - 140 0.00% N/A
     Vacant 2  
Total 655 107 107 107 4,311,138 100% +2.61%

Marginal seats

The following is a list of the ten ridings most narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2007 election (by percentage of the vote the indicated party lost by).

Liberal Progressive Conservative
  1. Halton (PC), 1.3%
  2. Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington (PC), 2.1%
  3. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (NDP), 2.5%
  4. Newmarket—Aurora (PC), 2.9%
  5. Burlington (PC), 3.5%
  6. Thornhill (PC), 3.6%
  7. Cambridge (PC), 7.6%
  8. Whitby—Oshawa (PC), 8.0%
  9. Nickel Belt (NDP), 8.6%
  10. Sarnia—Lambton (PC), 8.9%
  1. Nipissing (Lib), 1.1%
  2. Barrie (Lib), 2.9%
  3. Kitchener—Conestoga (Lib), 4.8%
  4. Eglinton—Lawrence (Lib), 5.6%
  5. Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale (Lib), 6.6%
  6. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex (Lib), 6.9%
  7. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry (Lib), 9.9%
  8. Don Valley West (Lib), 10.7%
  9. London—Fanshawe (Lib), 11.3%
  10. Oak Ridges—Markham (Lib), 11.8%
New Democratic Green
  1. Thunder Bay—Atikokan (Lib), 0.2%
  2. York South—Weston (Lib), 1.5%
  3. Timiskaming—Cochrane (Lib), 2.3%
  4. Hamilton Mountain (Lib), 3.7%
  5. Ottawa Centre (Lib), 4.0%
  6. Davenport (Lib), 5.0%
  7. Algoma—Manitoulin (Lib), 6.0%
  8. Oshawa (PC), 6.3%
  9. Thunder Bay—Superior North (Lib), 8.5%
  10. Sarnia—Lambton (PC), 11.5%
  1. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound (PC), 13.5%

Candidates

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Liberal

Progressive Conservative

New Democratic Party

Opinion polls

Polling firm Date of polling Link Liberal PC NDP Green Type of poll Margin of error
Angus Reid October 4–5, 2011 PDF 37 33 26 3 Online 3.6%
EKOS October 3–5, 2011 PDF 37.7 31.5 23.3 5.9 Interactive voice response 2.0%
Forum Research October 4, 2011 HTML 37 36 23 3 Interactive voice response 3.1%
Angus Reid October 3–4, 2011 PDF 33 36 26 5 Online 2.1%
Abacus Data October 3–4, 2011 HTML 37 34 24 4 Online 3.1%
EKOS October 2–4, 2011 PDF 39.0 29.7 23.1 6.6 Interactive voice response 2.2%
Nanos Research October 2–3, 2011 PDF 40.1 33.0 23.2 2.8 Telephone 4.2%
EKOS October 2–3, 2011 PDF 39.1 29.1 24.5 6.0 Interactive voice response 2.9%
Nanos Research October 1–3, 2011 PDF 37.7 33.2 25.8 2.1 Telephone 3.4%
Ipsos Reid September 30 – October 3, 2011 PDF 41 31 25 3 Telephone 3.1%
Nanos Research September 30 – October 2, 2011 PDF 35.9 36.4 25.7 1.2 Telephone 3.5%
EKOS September 29 – October 2, 2011 PDF 37.8 30.6 22.7 7.3 Interactive voice response 2.8%
Nanos Research September 29 – October 1, 2011 PDF 36.5 34 26.8 1.9 Telephone 3.5%
Nanos Research September 28–30, 2011 PDF 38.0 35.3 24.6 1.8 Telephone 3.5%
Angus Reid September 28–30, 2011 PDF 33 34 26 6 Online 3.1%
Leger Marketing September 28–29, 2011 PDF 32 34 29 5 Online 3.1%
Nanos Research September 28–29, 2011 PDF 37.7 34.4 25.5 2.0 Telephone 4.3%
Environics September 26–28, 2011 HTML 35 36 25 3 Online
Abacus Data September 23–25, 2011 PDF 33 37 23 6 Online 2.9%
EKOS September 21–25, 2011 PDF 34.9 31.4 24.7 7.6 Interactive voice response 2.3%
Forum Research September 22–23, 2011 HTML 35 35 23 5 Interactive voice response 0.5%
Angus Reid September 13–15, 2011 HTML 32 36 26 6 Online 3.1%
Leger Marketing September 12–15, 2011 PDF 33 36 26 5 Online 3.1%
Abacus Data September 9–12, 2011 HTML 32 41 20 6 Online 3.2%
Nanos Research September 10–11, 2011 PDF 38.1 34.7 24.3 2.7 Telephone 4.9%
Ipsos Reid September 7–11, 2011 HTML 38 37 24 1 Telephone 3.5%
Harris-Decima August 25 – September 4, 2011 HTML 40 29 24 6 Telephone 3.8%
Nanos Research August 30 – September 1, 2011 PDF 31.9 35.4 22.8 4.1 Telephone 3.1%
Forum Research August 29–30, 2011 HTML 30 35 26 7 Interactive voice response 2.0%
Angus Reid August 25–28, 2011 PDF 31 38 24 6 Online 3.1%
Nanos Research August 10–13, 2011 PDF 37.6 42.1 16.2 3.4 Telephone 3.4%
Ipsos Reid July 29 – August 4, 2011 HTML 36 38 23 3 Telephone 4.9%
Forum Research July 27–28, 2011 HTML 28 38 24 7 Interactive voice response 2.1%
Ipsos Reid June 7 – July 7, 2011 HTML 31 42 22 5 Telephone 3.5%
Forum Research June 21–22, 2011 HTML 26 41 22 8 Interactive voice response 1.7%
Ipsos Reid May 17 – June 9, 2011 HTML 34 40 20 6 Telephone 3.5%
Nanos Research May 14–15, 2011 PDF 34 41 19 5 Telephone 4.7%
Nanos Research March 8–11, 2011 PDF 35 44 16 4 Telephone 4.9%
Nanos Research January 31 – February 3, 2011 PDF 39 43 13 5 Telephone 4.7%
Ipsos Reid January 20, 2011 HTML 35 38 17 9 Telephone
Ipsos Reid November 18, 2010 HTML 32 41 20 7
Angus Reid September 28, 2010 PDF 29 41 22 8 Online 3.5%
Ipsos Reid August 21, 2010 HTML 35 36 18 11
Ipsos Reid June 19, 2010 HTML 37 32 20 11
Nanos Research February 9–10, 2010 PDF 41.4 37.9 12.8 7.9 Telephone 4.9%
Ipsos Reid December 13, 2009 HTML 38 34 15 10
Angus Reid December 4, 2009 PDF 27 41 20 11
Nanos Research October 24–25, 2009 PDF 36.6 35 17.2 9.8 Telephone 4.8%
Environics October 2009 HTML 32 37 19 11
Environics June 2009 HTML 44 32 15 8
Environics April 2009 HTML 44 29 17 11
Environics January 2009 HTML 45 32 12 11
Environics November 2008 HTML 35 30 21 13
Environics June 2008 HTML 41 31 16 12
Environics March 2008 HTML 38 30 19 12
Environics January 2008 HTML 45 34 18 2
Environics November 2007 HTML 44 31 22 3
Election 2007 October 10, 2007 HTML 42.3 31.6 16.8 8.0

Media endorsements

Liberals

Progressive Conservatives

Did not endorse

References

  1. ^ "Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2005". Service Ontario e-laws. December 15, 2005. http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/source/statutes/english/2005/elaws_src_s05035_e.htm. Retrieved May 19, 2008. 
  2. ^ "Ontario election turnout hits record low". CBC.ca. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/10/07/ontario-election-voter-turnout.html. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
  3. ^ Robert Benzie and Susan Delacourt. "Ontario cabinet minister to seek federal seat." Toronto Star. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/907928--ontario-cabinet-minister-to-seek-federal-seat
  4. ^ a b Benzie, Robert (June 4, 2011). "Retiring Liberal MPP Bruce Crozier dead". The Toronto Star (Toronto). http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1002784--retiring-liberal-mpp-bruce-crozier-dead. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
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  9. ^ Liberal MPP Caplan not running again "Toronto Star"
  10. ^ Examiner staff (January 21, 2011). "Aileen Carroll won't seek a second term". The Barrie Examiner (Barrie, ON). http://www.thebarrieexaminer.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2940632. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  11. ^ QMI Agency (November 25, 2010). "Hoy won't seek re-election". London Free Press (London, ON). http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2010/11/24/16295951.html. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  12. ^ Sherwin, Fred (April 13, 2011). "Veteran MPP calls it a day after 41 years in politics". Orléans Online (Ottawa). http://www.orleansonline.ca/pages/N2011041301.htm. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  13. ^ Chant, Miranda (November 9, 2011). "Elgin-Middlesex-London MPP Calls it Quits". News/Talk 1290 CJBK (London, ON). http://www.cjbk.com/LocalNews/Story.aspx?ID=1309033. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
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  17. ^ Liberal backbencher Tony Ruprecht won’t seek re-election "Toronto Star"
  18. ^ Cramer, Brandi (November 19, 2011). "Smith steps aside: MPP recalls her accomplishments and regrets". North Bay Nugget (North Bay, ON). http://www.nugget.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2853972. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  19. ^ Nugget, Carol-Ann (October 14, 2010). "MPP Gerry Martiniuk to retire from provincial politics in 2011". Cambridge Now (Cambridge, ON). http://www.cambridgenow.ca/npps/print.cfm?nppage=2005. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  20. ^ Benzie, Robert (July 5, 2010). "Conservative MPP Bill Murdoch to ride off into the sunset". The Toronto Star (Toronto). http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/831854--conservative-mpp-bill-murdoch-to-ride-off-into-the-sunset. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  21. ^ The Canadian Press (February 21, 2011). "MPP Savoline will not seek re-election". The Hamilton Spectator (Hamilton). http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/490318--mpp-savoline-will-not-seek-re-election. Retrieved June 6, 2011. 
  22. ^ "Veteran Ontario MPP Norm Sterling loses bitter PC nomination battle ". Globe and Mail.
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  24. ^ Robert, Benzie (July 30, 2011). "Former NDP leader Howard Hampton quits". The Toronto Star (Toronto). http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1032630--former-ndp-leader-howard-hampton-quits. Retrieved July 30, 2011. 
  25. ^ http://www.simcoe.com/opinion/editorial/article/1136757--liberals-deserve-another-term
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  28. ^ Ottawa Citizen October 4, 2011. "Hold your nose and vote Liberal". Ottawacitizen.com. http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Hold+your+nose+vote+Liberal/5497096/story.html#ixzz1ZoP3zqEg. Retrieved 2011-10-07. 
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