Campaigning for Zimbabwean presidential election, 2008

Campaigning for the first round of the presidential election held in Zimbabwe on March 29 2008 took place from February to March. There were three major candidates: President Robert Mugabe of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC, Tsvangirai faction), and the independent candidate Simba Makoni.

Beginning of campaigning

Mugabe declared on February 12 that he was "raring to go and raring to fly". [ [http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=68&art_id=nw20080212104319723C713990&set_id=1 "Mugabe 'raring to go' for election"] , Reuters ("IOL"), February 12, 2008.] Speaking at a rally in Beitbridge on February 23, he likened Makoni to "a frog trying to inflate itself up to the size of an ox" that was sure to burst, while calling Tsvangirai a Western puppet. Predicting an easy victory for ZANU-PF, he vowed that "regime change" would never occur in Zimbabwe. [ [http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/10D6DC9A-4778-4B44-AF62-A28CB814606A.htm "Mugabe lambasts challengers"] , Al Jazeera, February 24, 2008.] Mugabe launched his re-election campaign on February 29 in Harare [http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/02/29/news/Zimbabwe-Elections.php "Mugabe vows to defeat 'two-headed political creatures' in Zimbabwe election"] , Associated Press ("International Herald Tribune"), February 29, 2008.] and presented ZANU-PF's election manifesto. [http://www.sabcnews.com/africa/southern_africa/0,2172,165094,00.html "Mugabe partially admits failing Zimbabweans"] , SABC News, February 29, 2008.] He promised increased agricultural production and the reform and improvement of the mining sector, [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7271611.stm "Mugabe dubs poll rivals 'witches'"] , BBC News, February 29, 2008.] and he urged the party to acknowledge past failures, such as in the area of infrastructure development. He said that ZANU-PF was united under his leadership: "the struggles within the party that have taken place, and in some cases little wars, have been settled. At the end of the day, we have this congregation with me at the head."

Tsvangirai launched his campaign and presented the MDC's election manifesto on February 23 in Mutare. Promising to deliver economic recovery, he said that the MDC had "studied this economy comprehensively and we know what is wrong with it", and that he could put "this economy back on its feet with 100 days of forming a democratic government". Mugabe and ZANU-PF, according to Tsvangirai, "belong [ed] to the past", had "run out of ideas", and could not rescue the economy. Tsvangirai also said that he would place a priority on the creation of a new constitution. He argued that the people wanted total change and not merely partial reform, comparing the former to new clothes and the latter to patching up tattered clothes; this was viewed as a critical reference to Makoni's candidacy. [Fikile Maphala, [http://newzimbabwe.com/pages/mdc176.17794.html "Tsvangirai launches campaign, economic revival tops agenda"] , newzimbabwe.com, February 24, 2008.]

Speaking at a press conference in Bulawayo on March 1, prior to the launch of Makoni's campaign, former Interior Minister Dumiso Dabengwa and former Speaker of Parliament Cyril Ndebele announced their support for Makoni. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080301150501617C585699 "Zanu-PF veterans side with Makoni"] , AFP ("IOL"), March 1, 2008.]

Events during the campaign

While U.S. Ambassador James D. McGee pointed to "ominous signs" that the election would not be free and fair in an open letter in late February, Zambian Foreign Minister Kabinge Pande said that signs were encouraging and that regional leaders believed the election would be free and fair. Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa suggested that the West might not be willing to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election unless Mugabe was defeated.

"The Herald", Zimbabwe's state-owned daily newspaper, reported on February 29 that Retired Major General Paradzayi Zimondi, the head of the prison service, gave his officers an order to vote for Mugabe. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080229102051794C851833 "'Vote Mugabe, that's an order!'"] , Reuters ("IOL"), February 29, 2008.] [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7271412.stm "Vote Mugabe, prison staff ordered"] , BBC News, February 29, 2008.] He said that Tsvangirai and Makoni would reverse land reform if they were elected, and he vowed to resign from his post and return to his farm to protect it if Mugabe were defeated. Makoni has said that he would continue land reform and would not take back any redistributed land unless it was improperly gained. Subsequently, Defence Forces Commander Constantine Chiwenga said that the army supported Mugabe and would "not support or salute sell-outs and agents of the West before, during and after the presidential elections". [Nqobani Ndlovu, [http://www.thestandard.co.zw/viewinfo.cfm?linkid=11&id=8450&siteid=1 "I'll only salute Mugabe, not sell-outs: Chiwenga"] , "The Standard" (Zimbabwe).]

On March 4, "The Herald" reported that several important foreign corporations, including Citigroup, South African Breweries-Miller, and Actis Africa, were providing financial assistance to Makoni's campaign; the newspaper called this proof that Makoni's "election bid was part of the Western regime change agenda". [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=nw20080304083217568C528939 "UK, SA firms fund Zim's Makoni: report"] , Sapa ("IOL"), March 4, 2008.]

Makoni said in an interview with Agence France-Presse in early March that he anticipated getting at least 72% of the vote and that he was only interested in the concerns of Zimbabweans, not those of the West. According to Makoni, Mugabe "has a very special place in our history" and would receive "the due respect that our African culture and African standards demand of us" if Makoni won the election, stressing that he was "not about retribution and victimisation". [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080304105122907C352529 "No backlash against Mugabe, says challenger"] , Sapa-AFP ("IOL"), March 4, 2008.] In an interview with the "Financial Times" published on March 17, he repeated that he would not seek retribution against Mugabe if he won the election, although he said that Mugabe had "a lot to answer for" and would still be subject to the law. According to Makoni, he wanted to form a national unity government that would include both ZANU-PF and the MDC. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080317130747584C235544 "Mugabe has a lot to answer for - Makoni"] , Sapa-AFP ("IOL"), March17, 2008.]

On March 5, "The Herald" reported that Mugabe told a rally in Bazely Bridge that "the British had identified people within Zanu-PF to work with in causing divisions in the party because it realised the ruling party was a united revolutionary liberation movement that had to be destroyed from within". He distributed over 200 computers to Manicaland schools and said that food and farm equipment would also be sent. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080305160206725C376188 "Makoni presidency a ploy by Britain - Mugabe"] , "IOL", March 5, 2008.] On the same day, Mugabe said at a rally in Mahusekwa that some businesses were raising prices with the intent of causing the people to suffer, hoping that they would blame the government for their suffering and vote for the opposition as a result. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080305193459334C876784 "Mugabe says price hikes undermine him"] , AFP ("IOL"), March 5, 2008.]

The European Union expressed concern on March 10 that "the humanitarian, political and economic situation in Zimbabwe and conditions on the ground" might "endanger the holding of free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections". It said that European observers had not been invited. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080310160808805C224266 "EU fears Zim elections won't be free or fair"] , Reuters ("IOL"), March 10, 2008.] While not inviting any observers from the EU or the United States, Zimbabwe has invited 47 observer teams, including observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the African Union, China, Russia, and Iran. On March 11, the arrival of the first 50 observers from SADC was reported, with more expected. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080311111444160C417198 "SADC observers arrive to monitor Zim poll"] , AFP ("IOL"), March 11, 2008.] SADC Secretary-General Tomaz Salomao said in a press conference in Harare on March 12 that SADC was confident "that the tradition of peace encapsulated in the unquestionable political maturity and tolerance shall, once again guide Zimbabweans as they go to the polls". [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080312125428396C852502 "SADC shrugs off election fears"] , Sapa-AFP ("IOL"), March 12, 2008.]

In light of Zimbabwe's dramatic inflation rate, Mugabe massively raised the salaries of members of the security forces in February, and on March 10 he approved raises for teachers and civil servants. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080312104659301C359379 "Is Mugabe wooing workers?"] , Sapa-AFP ("IOL"), March 12, 2008.] At around the same time, he signed the Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Bill, which requires all businesses to be majority owned (at least 51%) by black Zimbabweans. [Basildon Peta, [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=vn20080310060143523C439170 "Mugabe approves indigenous ownership law"] , "The Star" ("IOL"), March 10, 2008, page 5.] Mugabe subsequently accused business of raising prices to nullify the benefit of the pay raises, demanding that the price increases be reversed and warning that "profiteering" white-owned businesses would be taken over by the government. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080320094408511C432454 "Zim gets rid of 'profiteers'"] , Sapa-DPA ("IOL"), March 20, 2008.]

Human Rights Watch stated that the Electoral Commission was inadequately prepared for the polls and that the opposition was not being treated equally to the governing ZANU-PF by the authorities. [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7304252.stm "Zimbabwe election run-up 'flawed'"] , BBC News, March 19, 2008.] The government rejected these accusations; Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga said that both ZANU-PF and the MDC were represented on the Electoral Commission and that Human Rights Watch's report reflected an agenda. [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7305491.stm "Zimbabwe rejects free poll fears"] , BBC News, March 19, 2008.] In a report issued on March 19, Human Rights Forum claimed strong media bias in favor of Mugabe and the use of intimidation and threats against opposition supporters; it also alleged that the Electoral Commission is merely a front for the Registrar's Office, which it said is partisan in favor of ZANU-PF. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3045&art_id=vn20080322101915803C374911 "Poll run-up a 'dog's breakfast'"] , "Cape Argus" ("IOL"), March 22, 2008, page 12.]

Mugabe has used the campaign slogan "vote for the fist", reflecting ZANU-PF militancy; the MDC replied to this slogan by saying that "we cannot feed people with clenched fists", while Makoni has said that "the fist has become a hammer smashing the country". [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=2646&art_id=vn20080322102125504C988394 "'Vote for the Fist' - Mugabe"] , Reuters ("IOL"), March 22, 2008 ("Saturday Argus", March 22, 2008, page 13).]

The Electoral Court ruled against an MDC petition asking for electronic copies of the voter rolls to be made available, saying that this was out of the Court's jurisdiction, on March 13. An application requesting electronic copies was subsequently filed at the Harare High Court on March 17. An electronic list would facilitate searching the rolls for discrepancies. The presence in the voter rolls of Desmond Lardner-Burke, a Rhodesian Minister of Law and Order who died decades before, has been pointed to as an example of flaws in the voter rolls.Angus Shaw, [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080318141549174C872276 "Opposition demand electronic voters' roll"] , Sapa-Associated Press ("IOL"), March 18, 2008.] On March 20, Tsvangirai held a news conference at which he claimed that, in 28 rural constituencies, there were 90,000 names on the voter rolls that could not be accounted for. He said that he based this claim on the work of independent analysts. He also protested a plan by the Electoral Commission to have votes in the presidential election counted separately, at the national level, while votes for the parliamentary and local elections would be counted locally at the polling stations. According to Tsvangirai, who demanded that all votes be counted at the polling stations, this was illegal, and he said that he would "not participate in such a process". Furthermore, he said that while only 20,000 postal ballots were necessary, the Electoral Commission had ordered 600,000 of them. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080320142644943C361924 "'Voters' register filled with ghost names'"] , AFP ("IOL"), March 20, 2008.] MDC Secretary-General Tendai Biti claimed on March 23 that correspondence had been discovered indicating that the Electoral Commission had requested the printing of nine million ballots, far more than the number of registered voters. According to Biti, this demonstrated an intention to rig the election in favor of Mugabe. Biti also said that 600,000 postal ballots had been ordered for police, soldiers, [http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/23/zimbabwe.elections/index.html "Mugabe accused of election-rigging plan"] , CNN, March 23, 2008.] [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3045&art_id=vn20080324070114210C453666 "Vote-rigging fears in Zimbabwe"] , "Cape Times", March 24, 2008, page 1.] civil servants working away from home, and diplomats and their families who are posted in other countries. According to Biti, this was wildly disproportionate to the actual number of postal ballots needed; he said that the number of police and soldiers combined was 50,000 at most. Electoral Commission Deputy Chairwoman Joyce Kazembe rejected the allegation that extra ballots were being printed to facilitate fraud, saying that only a small number of extra ballots had been printed in order to account for spoilt ballots. [ [http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8F043D26-298C-4FCD-9B31-D3B803600442.htm "Mugabe looks East for economic aid"] , Al Jazeera, March 25, 2008.]

On March 23, Mugabe held a rally in Bulawayo, the country's second largest city, which is considered a stronghold of the MDC. At the rally, he accused the MDC of seeking the reversal of land reform and urging other countries to intensify sanctions on Zimbabwe, and he said that ZANU-PF had not been split by Makoni's candidacy and Dabengwa's decision to back Makoni. For his part, Tsvangarai rejected the idea that he was hostile to land reform, saying that he made land reform proposals as early as 1995. He did, however, say that he wanted to establish an independent commission to confiscate farms from individuals who owned more than one. [Moshoeshoe Monare and Agiza Hlongwane, [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=vn20080324111821231C510237 "Mugabe on the offensive"] , "Daily News" ("IOL"), March 24, 2008, page 4.]

According to the South Africa-based Zimbabwe Solidarity Forum at a media briefing on March 20, Zimbabweans living outside the country would not be able to vote because of a constitutional requirement that a voter have lived within a constituency for at least one year prior to the election. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080320154002434C643620 "Zim in diaspora cannot vote - ZSF"] , Sapa ("IOL"), March 20, 2008.]

Opinion polls and conclusion of campaign

According to a March 2008 poll by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, Mugabe stands at 20% support, with 28% for Tsvangirai and 9% for Makoni. The remaining, undecided voters were deemed more likely to vote for the opposition than for Mugabe. Tsvangirai claimed Mugabe could not win the election due to the state of the economy, a record of alleged repression, and his age, but would try to steal it. He said that the MDC hoped to pre-empt the Electoral Commission by conducting its own count and releasing results first. [Christina Lamb, [http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3602705.ece "Robert Mugabe ‘cannot win election – but he can still steal it'"] , "The Sunday Times", March 23, 2008.] On March 23, he claimed that most members of the police and the Central Intelligence Organisation were "behind the people" and "committed to defend the new Zimbabwe", despite the statements from leading figures in the security forces expressing support for Mugabe. He said that members of the security forces had "nothing to fear" if he won the election, as long as they "protect [ed] the national voices of Zimbabweans" and were "committed to the constitutional order in this country".

Marwick Khumalo, the head of the observer group of the AU's Pan-African Parliament, said in an interview published in "The Herald" on March 24 that his group was concerned only with the electoral process itself, not with the outcome. He said that his group had "not come to prescribe to Zimbabwe how they should conduct their elections" and that "the purpose of our mission here is to ensure that the elections meet the standards of the African Union Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and the African Union Declaration on Elections, Democracy and Governance in Africa." [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080324132702369C676454 "We're not interested in Zim poll outcome - AU"] , Sapa-DPA ("IOL"), March 24, 2008.]

Another survey, conducted by Dr Joseph Kurebwa, a lecturer in the department of political science at the University of Zimbabwe, as an independent consultant was reported by "The Herald" on March 28 as predicting that Mugabe would win a first round majority with 56% of the vote, followed by Tsvangirai with 26–27%, Makoni with 13–14%, and Towungana with 0.2%. The survey was based on the views of 10,322 participants, and all of the country's wards were represented in the survey. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080328070512563C670497 "Mugabe tipped to win"] , Sapa ("IOL"), March 28, 2008.] Interestingly, Dr Kurebwa is seen by many as a ZANU PF functionary in the mold of Professor Claude Mararike, who has been making the same predictions since 2000 based on what he terms a simulation of voting patterns in Zimbabwe on a sample selected by him. Opponents claim that the Herald, seen by observers as a government mouthpiece, [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4630443.stm BBC NEWS | Africa | UK, US 'caused Zimbabwe droughts' ] ] has misrepresented the university's position.

CNN was denied permission to cover the election, according to an official at the Ministry of Information and Publicity on March 25 2008. [ [http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/25/zimbabwe.cnn/index.html "CNN denied permission to cover elections in Zimbabwe"] , "CNN", March 25, 2008.] Many other foreign media outlets, such as South Africa's e.tv, were also denied accreditation by the government. [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3045&art_id=nw20080326122257663C609667 "Zimbabwe election complaints mount"] , Sapa-AFP ("IOL"), March 26, 2008.]

A few days before the election, Makoni's spokesman said that his campaign's advertisements were being excluded from the state media. His campaign manager, Nkosana Moyo, said on March 26 that, in addition to a national unity government, Makoni would establish some sort of truth and reconciliation process if he won the election. He also said that Makoni would take a different approach to land reform and would review any unjustified confiscations of land. Furthermore, Moyo made it clear that if Makoni placed third and was excluded from a potential second round, he would back Tsvangirai. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080326130414869C752847 "Zim needs a truth commission, says Makoni"] , Sapa ("IOL"), March 26, 2008.] At around the same time, the United States State Department urged the government and the Electoral Commission "to take concrete actions to address … significant shortcomings", and Amnesty International criticized what it alleged was intimidation of the opposition by the police.

The government's "Look East" policy, based on deepening economic relationships with a number of countries in Asia and the Middle East, was touted by Mugabe as the solution to Zimbabwe's economic problems. According to Mugabe, the Zimbabwean economy had not yet recovered because it was linked too closely to the West, but he said during the campaign that continuing the "Look East" policy would soon lead to economic recovery. He also said that Zimbabwe was learning from economic policies in some Asian countries that focused on the development of small and medium enterprises, arguing that these policies, unlike those favored by the West, empowered people locally.Bayano Valy, [http://allafrica.com/stories/200803270243.html "'Look East' Policy Pays Dividends - President"] , "The Herald" (allAfrica.com), March 27, 2008.]

On March 27, Mugabe dissolved his Cabinet ahead of the election. Regarding the composition of a new Cabinet following the election, he said that "the good performers will return, the poor performers will drop". [ [http://allafrica.com/stories/200803280065.html "Zimbabwe: Cabinet Dissolved Ahead of Historic Polls"] , "The Herald" (allAfrica.com), March 28, 2008.]

The MDC said that if Mugabe was declared the winner of the election, the result could be violence of the sort seen in Kenya following that country's December 2007 presidential election, although Tsvangirai told his supporters to not engage in violence. [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080328152534528C857038 "Mugabe fires broadside amid poll countdown"] , AFP ("IOL"), March 28, 2008.] At a rally in Nyanga District, Mugabe responded to the suggestion of violence by saying: "Just dare try it. We don't play around while you try to please your British allies. Just try it and you will see. We want to see you do it." He stressed the importance of having a peaceful atmosphere and said that the losing side must be prepared to acknowledge defeat. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20080327104604423C216151 "Just try it and you will see, warns Mugabe"] , Sapa-AFP ("IOL"), March 27, 2008.] On March 28, the security forces were placed on full alert. At a press conference on that day, National Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri warned the opposition to avoid violence, saying that violence "is a monster that can devour its creator, as it is blind and not selective in nature".

In a joint statement on March 27, Tsvangirai, Makoni, and Mutambara said that independent analysis of the voter lists demonstrated that there were major discrepancies and alleged the existence of "a very well thought out and sophisticated plan to steal the election from us". [http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F1BC6286-9B28-4DF5-80AE-E58F716858A4.htm "Zimbabweans vote in tense election"] , Al Jazeera, March 29, 2008.] They said that, in the period from December 2007 to February 2008, the number of voters on the voter registration list had increased by 11% in rural areas but by only 2% in urban areas. [http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E2C95179-C2F2-4FEF-B5DF-B268FFBC09EE.htm "Polls close in Zimbabwe elections"] , Al Jazeera, March 29, 2008.] Tsvangirai said that officials and election workers should ignore any instructions to falsify the results, and he called on voters to stay at their polling stations after voting so that they could prevent fraud.

Mugabe concluded his campaign on March 28 with a rally near Harare, vowing to win a victory that would deal "a final blow" to the British, who he described as the puppeteers of Tsvangirai and Makoni.

References