Quantification of margins and uncertainties

Quantification of margins and uncertainties

Quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) is a mathematical formalism developed within the U.S. nuclear weapons establishment to evaluate the designer's confidence that nuclear weapons, if used, will perform adequately. This formalism is a part of the process of nuclear weapon certification, a step following the design but preceding the deployment of the new Reliable Replacement Warhead.

Defined by Sharp and Wood-Schultz as "a framework that captures what we do and do not know about the performance of a nuclear weapon in a way that can be used to address risk and risk mitigation," [cite journal | url=http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/doe/lanl/pubs/las28/sharp.pdf | title=QMU and Nuclear Weapons Certification—What’s under the Hood? | author=David H. Sharp and Merri M. Wood-Schultz | journal=Los Alamos Science | volume=28 | pages = 47–53 |date=2003] , the precise meaning and scope of the term was reportedly unclear at the time of a later JASON study. [cite web| url=http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/margins.pdf | title=Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties | publisher=JASON - The Mitre Corporation | volume=JASON report JSR-04-330| date=2005-03-25 | author=D. Eardley et al.] A Sandia report describes QMU as a "decision-support methodology for complex technical decisions centering on performance thresholds and associated margins for engineered systems that are made under conditions of uncertainty." [cite web | url=http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/servlets/purl/891369-DDHmoi/891369.PDF | title=Ideas Underlying Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU): A white paper | publisher=Sandia National Laboratories report SAND2006-5001 | author=Martin Pilch, Timothy G.Trucano, and Jon C. Helton | date=September 2006 ]

ee also

* Reliable Replacement Warhead
* Uncertainty quantification

References


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  • Methode QMU — Méthode QMU La méthode QMU (Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties), en français Quantification des Marges et Incertitudes, a été développée aux États Unis par les laboratoires nationaux Lawrence Livermore et Los Alamos. Elle est… …   Wikipédia en Français

  • Méthode QMU — La méthode QMU (Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties), en français Quantification des Marges et Incertitudes, a été développée aux États Unis par les laboratoires nationaux Lawrence Livermore et Los Alamos. Elle est principalement… …   Wikipédia en Français

  • Méthodologie QMU — Méthode QMU La méthode QMU (Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties), en français Quantification des Marges et Incertitudes, a été développée aux États Unis par les laboratoires nationaux Lawrence Livermore et Los Alamos. Elle est… …   Wikipédia en Français

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