Cash flow forecasting


Cash flow forecasting

Cash flow forecasting is the modeling of a company or asset’s future financial liquidity over a specific timeframe. Cash usually refers to the company’s total bank balances, but often what is forecast is treasury position which is cash plus short-term investments minus short-term debt. Cash flow is the change in cash or treasury position from one period to the next.

Methods

The direct method of cash flow forecasting schedules the company’s cash receipts and disbursements (R&D). Receipts are primarily the collection of accounts receivable from recent sales, but also include sales of other assets, proceeds of financing, etc. Disbursements include, payroll, payment of accounts payable from recent purchases, dividends, debt service, etc. This direct, R&D method is best suited to the short-term forecasting horizon of 30 days or so because this is the period for which actual, as opposed to projected, data is available. (de Caux, 2005)

The three indirect methods are based on the company’s projected income statements and balance sheets. The adjusted net income (ANI) method starts with operating income (EBIT or EBITDA) and adds or subtracts changes in balance sheet accounts such as receivables, payables and inventories to project cash flow. The pro-forma balance sheet (PBS) method looks straight at the projected book cash account; if all the other balance sheet accounts have been correctly forecast, cash will be correct, too. Both the ANI and PBS methods are best suited to the medium-term (up to one year) and long-term (multiple years) forecasting horizons. Both are limited to the monthly or quarterly intervals of the financial plan, and need to be adjusted for the difference between accrual-accounting book cash and the often-significantly-different bank balances. (Association for Financial Professionals, 2006)

The third indirect approach is the accrual reversal method (ARM), which is similar to the ANI method. But instead of using projected balance sheet accounts, large accruals are reversed and cash effects are calculated based upon statistical distributions and algorithms. This allows the forecasting period to be weekly or even daily. It also eliminates the cumulative errors inherent in the direct, R&D method when it is extended beyond the short-term horizon. But because the ARM allocates both accrual reversals and cash effects to weeks or days, it is more complicated than the ANI or PBS indirect methods. The ARM is best suited to the medium-term forecasting horizon. (Bort, 1990)

Uses

A cash flow projection is an important input into valuation of assets, budgeting and determining appropriate capital structures in LBOs and leveraged recapitalizations.

References

* “Cash Forecasting”, Tony de Caux, Treasurer’s Companion, Association of Corporate Treasurers, 2005
* “Cash Flow Forecasting”, Association for Financial Professionals, 2006
* “Medium-Term Funds Flow Forecasting”, Corporate Cash Management Handbook, Richard Bort, Warren Gorham & Lamont, 1990


Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

Look at other dictionaries:

  • Retained Cash Flow - RCP — A measure of the net change in cash and cash equivalent assets at the end of a financial period. It is the difference between the incoming and outgoing cash for the period. retained cash flow is cash left over after the company uses cash for… …   Investment dictionary

  • Financial modeling — is the task of building an abstract representation (a model) of a financial decision making situation.[1] This is a mathematical model designed to represent (a simplified version of) the performance of a financial asset or a portfolio, of a… …   Wikipedia

  • Dynamic Discounting — Dynamic Payables Discounting is a process which allows buyers and sellers of commercial goods and services to dynamically change the payment terms such as net 30 to accelerated payment based on a sliding discount scale. Dynamic Payables… …   Wikipedia

  • Dynamic discounting — Dynamic payables discounting is a process which allows buyers and sellers of commercial goods and services to dynamically change the payment terms such as net 30 to accelerated payment based on a sliding discount scale. Dynamic payables… …   Wikipedia

  • business finance — Raising and managing of funds by business organizations. Such activities are usually the concern of senior managers, who must use financial forecasting to develop a long term plan for the firm. Shorter term budgets are then devised to meet the… …   Universalium

  • П — Пааше индекс [Paasche price index] Пагамент (Payment in cash) Пай (share, stock, stake) Пакет акций (interest, stock ) Пакетный множитель (blockage factor) …   Экономико-математический словарь

  • John Burr Williams — Infobox Scientist name = John Burr Williams box width = image width = caption = birth date = 1899 birth place = death date = 1989 death place = residence = citizenship = nationality = ethnicity = field = Finance work institutions = University of… …   Wikipedia

  • Stock selection criteria — is a strategy in which an analyst or investor uses a systematic form of analysis to determine if a particular stock constitutes a good investment which should be added to their portfolio. The objective of stock selection criteria is maximizing… …   Wikipedia

  • Inventory — means a list compiled for some formal purpose, such as the details of an estate going to probate, or the contents of a house let furnished. This remains the prime meaning in British English.[1] In the USA and Canada the term has developed from a… …   Wikipedia

  • T-Model — The T Model is a formula that states the returns earned by holders of a company s stock in terms of accounting variables obtainable from its financial statements [ Estep, Preston W., A New Method For Valuing Common Stocks , Financial Analysts… …   Wikipedia


We are using cookies for the best presentation of our site. Continuing to use this site, you agree with this.