John Craig

Infobox Scientist
name = John Craig
box_width = 300px


birth_date = 1663
birth_place = Hoddam, Dumfries, Scotland
death_date = October 11, 1731
death_place = High Holborn, London, England
residence = flag|England
citizenship =
nationality = flagicon|Scotland Scottish
ethnicity =
field = Mathematician
work_institutions =
alma_mater = University of Edinburgh
doctoral_advisor = David Gregory
doctoral_students =
known_for = Log-likelihood ratio
influences = Isaac Newton
influenced =
prizes =
religion =
footnotes =

John Craig (1663–October 11, 1731) was a Scottish mathematician. Born in Dumfries and educated at the University of Edinburgh, he moved to England and became a vicar in the Church of England.

A friend of Newton, he wrote several minor works about the new calculus. He is mainly known for his book "Theologiae Christianae Principia Mathematica" ("Mathematical Principles of Christian Theology"), published in 1698.

In the aforementioned book, Craig presents a formula that describes how the probability of a historical event depends on the number of primary witnesses, on the chain of transmission through secondary witnesses, on the elapsed time and on the spatial distance. Using this formula, Craig derived that the probability of the story of Jesus would reach 0 in the year 3150. This year he interpreted as the Second Coming of Christ because of verse 18:8 in the Gospel of Luke.

His work was poorly received. Several later mathematicians complained about his imprecise use of probability and the unsupported derivation of his formula. Stephen Stigler, in his 1999 book (see references, below) gave a more favorable interpretation, pointing out that some of Craig's reasoning can be justified if his "probability" is interpreted as the log-likelihood ratio.

He was elected to Fellow of the Royal Society in 1711.

References

* S. M. Stigler, "Statistics on the Table", Chapter 13, Harvard University Press, (1999).
* J. F. Scott, "Dictionary of Scientific Biography" (New York 1970-1990).
* A. I. Dale, "Dictionary of National Biography" (Oxford, 2004).
* R. Nash, "John Craige's mathematical principles of Christian theology" (1991).
* M. Cantor, "Voresungen über Geschichte der Mathematik III" (Leipzig, 1896), 52, 188.
* "Dictionary of National Biography" (London, 1917).
* S. M. Stigler, "John Craig and the probability of history: from the death of Christ to the birth of Laplace", "Journal of the American Statistical Association" 81 (1986), 879-887.

External links

* [http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Mathematicians/Craig.html MacTutor: John Craig]
* [http://www.electricscotland.com/history/other/craig_john.htm Significant Scots: John Craig]