Opinion polling for the Croatian parliamentary election, 2011


Opinion polling for the Croatian parliamentary election, 2011

Opinion polling for the Croatian parliamentary election, 2011 started early after the previous election with polls on individual parties. As electoral coalitions were formed, coalition ratings started to be polled as well.

The poll results below are listed by category and ordered in reverse chronological order. Major political events are indicated chronologically between individual polls.

Polling was also done for the next Croatian referendum likely to be held in late 2011.

Contents

Poll results

Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour ZK/BUZ Other Undecided
2-3 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,300 18.3% 37.2% 3.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.1% 5.7% 3% 4.7% 18%
31 Oct General election officially called: President of the Republic agrees to a dissolution of Parliament, allowing the general election to take place on 4 December.[1]
28 Oct MPs vote to dissolve Parliament.[2]
28 Oct Former PM and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader appears in court for the first of many pending trials for corruption. [3]
27 Oct As a result of the ongoing investigation of the party's 'black funds', USKOK and the Attorney General issue an indictment against HDZ as a legal entity.[4]
25 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.3% 38.8% 2.5% 1.6% 4.7% 1.6% 6.3% 4.4% 6.8% 13%
13 Oct After Vladimir Šeks and HDZ caused a number of incidents in a parliamentary immunity proceedings, most of the opposition parties (Kukuriku coalition and Labour) decided to boycott the work of the Sabor. Their concerns were also echoed by SDSS which is part of the ruling coalition, causing a quorum issue.[5]
3-4 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,300 19% 36.7% 4.4% 2.5% 3.7% 3.5% ~5% 7.2% 18%
27 Sep HDZ reveals its manifesto for the upcoming election.[6]
26 Sep Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.1% 37.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.5% 2.5% 6.1% 5.1% 7.2% 9.6%
23 Sep USKOK issues a second indictment against Ivo Sanader for taking a 10 million euro bribe from MOL[7]
18 Sep Hendal for HRT 873 10% 33.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.4% 8.7% 40.2%
17 Sep HDZ holds its 14th party convention.[8]
15 Sep Kukuriku coalition reveals its political manifesto called 'Plan 21'.[9]
11 Sep Former HDZ treasurer Branka Pavošević testifies to USKOK about the party's 'black funds' and illegal finances used for previous elections.[10]
1-2 Sep CRO Demoskop 1,300 20.4% 37% 4.4% 2% 2.8% 3.2% 4.9% 7% 19.7%
25 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.8% 35.3% 5.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 5.3% 4.3% 9.5% 12.1%

Seat projections

Because the seats in the Parliament are split according to Croatian Parliament electoral districts, seat projections significantly vary from a generic overall poll.

The seat projections do not include:

  • the 8 seats from minority voters, and these representatives are not usually strictly aligned with mainstream parties
  • the 3 seats from voters residing abroad, which have in every election since independence gone to HDZ

The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

Because of the nature of the D'Hondt method, seat projections are less reliable, so some polls list tentative options, indicated in parenthesis.

Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour ZK/BUZ Other
4 Nov 2011 Ipsos Puls for Večernji list, Media servis & Nova TV 4,047 41 78 2
(3)
4 1 1 7
(3)
4 2
(1)
14-28 Oct 2011 GFK for RTL 4,000 35 90 0 3 5 1 5 1 0
25 Oct 2011 Promocija Plus for HNS 8,000 44 77 2
(2)
4
(1)
2 0
(4)
6 2
(3)
3

Early polling

Coalition rating

Date(s) Conducted/Published Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ-HSS Kukuriku Lead
1–3 August 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 25.0% 37.4% 12.4%
25 July 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 25.3% 37.8% 12.5%
1–2 July 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 21.5% 38% 16.5%
26 June 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.6% 35.9% 15.3%
2–3 June 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 19.9% 39.8% 19.9%
25 May 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22% 38.2% 16.2%
2–3 May 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 19.9% 39.8% 19.9%
22 April 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22.5% 33.2% 10.7%
1–3 April 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 21.2% 40.4% 19.2%
24 March 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 18.9% 40.9% 22%
4 March 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 24.4% 41.2% 16.8%
24 February 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 24.2% 44.3% 20.1%
1 and 2 February 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 27.8% 42% 14.2%
25 January 2011 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 24.2% 44.3% 20.1%
3 and 4 January 2011 CRO Demoskop 1,300 27.9% 41.2% 13.3%
25 December 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 27.4% 47% 19.6%
7 December 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 2,619 20.5% 44% 23.5%
30 November and 1 December 2010 CRO Demoskop 1,300 27.5% 41.6% 14.1%
25 November 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 25.5% 42.1% 16.6%
2–3 November 2010 CRO Demoskop 1,300 27.6% 43.7% 16.1%
29 October 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 25.2% 40.5% 15.3%
4–5 October 2010 CRO Demoskop 1,300 28.2% 43% 14.8%
30 September 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 25.1% 41.6% 16.5%
1–2 September 2010 CRO Demoskop 1,300 28.5% 42.6% 14.1%
31 August 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 964 25.8% 42.9% 17.1%
1–2 August 2010 CRO Demoskop 1,300 27.9% 41.7% 13.8%
28 July 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 29.9% 40.5% 10.6%
13–16 July 2010 Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 700 25% 44% 19%
30 June 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 30.7% 44.7% 14%
31 May 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 33% 42% 9%
30 April 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 962 36.4% 39.8% 3.4%
27 February 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 37.9% 42% 4.1%
29 January 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 32.9% 45.2% 12.3%

Party rating

2011
Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLS Other Undecided
23 Aug Prizma for HDZ 3,000 24.9% 26.8% 7.3% 5.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1-3 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,300 20.1% 28.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 Jul Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 23.8% 26.3% 6.2% 4.3% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 18.3% 11%
1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,300 18.4% 27.9% 5.5% 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 2.2% N/A N/A
26 Jun Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 19.3% 26.6% 4.7% 4.7% 3.9% 4.6% 4.4% 17.3% 14.5%
2-3 Jun CRO Demoskop 1,300 17.8% 29.8% 6.2% 3.9% 3.1% 3.5% 2.1% N/A N/A
25 May Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.3% 30.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 6.1% 2.9% 7.9% 14.7%
16 May GFK for RTL 600 8% 26.4% 3.3% 0.9% 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% N/A 40.9%
2–3 May CRO Demoskop 1,300 18% 29% 5.9% 4.5% 3.1% 3.6% 2.6% N/A N/A
22 Apr Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.9% 26.9% 4.8% 2.8% 3.4% 4% 2.6% 16.8% 17.8%
15 Apr Former Croatian general Ante Gotovina is sentenced to 24 years in prison by ICTY after being found guilty of war crimes during Operation Storm.[11]
1-3 Apr CRO Demoskop 1,300 18.3% 29.2% 5.9% 5.1% 3% 3.1% 3.2% N/A N/A
24 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 17% 27.8% 5.5% 3.1% 5.1% 5.3% 2% 15.8% 18.4%
20 Mar Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list ? 15.1% 26.7% 5% 1.3% 3.1% 1.5% 2.2% N/A 15.9%
14 Mar GFK for RTL 600 6.6% 30% 3.3% 0.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% N/A 41.7%
4 Mar CRO Demoskop 1,300 19.2% 29.9% 5.9% 5.1% 2.9% 4% 3.1% N/A N/A
2 Mar Anti-government protests are held across the country. The protesters burn the flags of major political parties as well as the flag of the European Union calling for an early general election.[12]
24 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22% 29% 6.3% 4.5% 5.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1% 12.6%
1-2 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,300 21.9% 31% 5.6% 5% 3.2% 3.8% 3.8% N/A N/A
25 Jan Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22.5% 33.3% 5.2% 4.8% 4.1% 4.4% N/A 12.5% 11.1%
3-4 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,300 22.6% 31.2% 6% 5.1% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% N/A N/A
2010
Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLS Other Undecided
27 Dec Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor reshuffles the Cabinet with four ministerial changes as well as adding a new Vice-Presidential post.[13]
25 Dec Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 24.7% 32% 6.9% 5.4% 3.9% 3.6% 4.2% N/A N/A
10 Dec Ivo Sanader is arrested in Salzburg, Austria.[14]
9 Dec Former Prime Minister and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader flees the country after he is indicted under charges of corruption.[15] He is put on the Interpol wanted list.[16]
7 Dec Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 4,000 21.2% 34.3% 6.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.4% 3.7% 14.2% 7.9%
30 Nov-1 Dec CRO Demoskop 1,300 22.1% 32.8% 6.2% 5.2% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% N/A N/A
25 Nov Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 24.3% 31.4% 6.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 12.9% 9.8%
23 Nov Leaders of the four main opposition parties: SDP, HNS-LD, IDS and HSU; sign a declaration in Kastav officially forming a coalition for the next parliamentary election called Alliance for Change[17]
2-3 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,300 22.3% 32.8% 6.2% 5.3% 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% N/A N/A
29 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22% 31% 6.4% 5.5% 3.6% N/A N/A 15.4% 13.7%
15 Oct Former Vice President of the Government Damir Polančec is sentenced to 15 months in prison for abuse of power while Minister of the Economy. A letter surfaces where Polančec accuses Prime Minister Kosor and the Vice President of Parliament Vladimir Šeks of knowing the judge's verdict over a month before it was actually sentenced.[18]
13 Oct Former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader reactivates his mandate in Parliament.[19]
4-5 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,300 23% 32.5% 5.9% 5.1% 3.8% 2.9% 2.9% N/A N/A
30 Sep Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 26% 31.4% 7.5% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% N/A 9% 10.3%
1-2 Sep CRO Demoskop 1,300 23.4% 32.3% 6% 5.1% 3% 2.2% 3.2% N/A N/A
31 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 964 25.7% 34.1% 5.6% 5.9% 5.5% N/A 3.8% 8.4% N/A
1-2 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,300 22.7% 30.9% 6.2% 5.1% 3.2% 2.2% 1.9% N/A N/A
28 Jul Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 25.8% 30.8% 6.5% 6.1% 7% 4.2% 3% 8% N/A
13-16 Jul Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 700 25.4% 32.4% 4.4% 3.7% 1.4% 2.4% 1.6% 6.2% 19.5%
12 Jul The Government signs an agreement with three independents: the Croatian Social Liberal Party's two former representatives and Zlatko Horvat. This brings the governing coalition from 82 to 83 of 153 seats in parliament.[20]
11 Jul The leaders of the four main opposition parties: SDP, HNS-LD, IDS and HSU; hold a meeting in Baranja and announce their intention to form a coalition for the next general election.
10 Jul Darinko Kosor, the leader of the Croatian Social Liberal Party, announce his party's decision to leave the governing coalition.
1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,300 22.5% 31.5% 5.9% 5.1% 3.1% 2.5% 1.7% N/A N/A
30 Jun Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 24.5% 34.7% 6.6% 6.5% 3.9% 4% N/A N/A N/A
24 Jun Labour Unions announce they have collected the necessary amount of signatures to trigger a binding referendum against the new labour bill proposed by the Government.
1-2 Jun CRO Demoskop 1,300 23.9% 30.5% 6.1% 5% 3% 2.6% 1.7% N/A N/A
31 May Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 28% 30% 8.4% 6.1% 3.9% 4.1% N/A 18.7% N/A
3–4 May CRO Demoskop 1,300 23.4% 30.8% 6% 4.9% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% N/A N/A
30 Apr Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 962 29.7% 30.4% 8.4% 4.8% 5.1% N/A N/A 11% 10%
31 Mar-1 April CRO Demoskop 1,300 24.3% 31% 5.9% 5.1% 3% 2.8% N/A N/A N/A
30 Mar Former Vice President of the Government of Croatia Damir Polančec, the Minister of the Economy in the Sanader II and, until his resignation, the current Kosor cabinet is arrested under charges of corruption during his tenure as a member of government.
25 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ? 27.7% 33% 6.9% 5.4% 4.4% 4.1% N/A 7.5% 11%
4 Mar CRO Demoskop 1,300 24% 32.2% 5.9% 5.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.2% N/A N/A
27 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ? 30.2% 33.4% 7.7% 5.1% 4.2% 3.4% 2.8% 4.9% N/A
3 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,300 24% 32.6% 6.5% 5.1% 2.5% 1.7% 2% N/A N/A
29 Jan Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 27.6% 34% 8.3% 5.9% 5.7% 2.7% 2% N/A N/A
10 Jan SDP presidential candidate Ivo Josipović is elected the third President of the Republic.
4-5 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,300 23.5% 33% 6.2% 4.7% 2.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 Jan Former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader issues a press conference attacking Jadranka Kosor, Andrija Hebrang and most of the HDZ party leaders for their 'failed leadership', announcing his return. He is expelled from the party the day after.
2009
Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLS Other Undecided
31 Dec Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ? 27% 33% 7.8% 5.5% 4.9% N/A N/A 12.2% 9.6%
30 Nov-1 Dec CRO Demoskop 1,300 24.2% 31% 6.8% 5.2% 3.3% 2.2% 2% 9% 18.5%
30 Nov Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ? 26.3% 32% 7.3% 5.2% 5.5% 3.8% N/A 7.5% 12.4%
4 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,300 24.6% 30.8% 6.5% 4.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ? 27.1% 31.7% 7.5% 7.3% 5.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 Oct Damir Polančec, member of the HDZ Presidency, resigns as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy following allegations of corruption.
31 Sep-1 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,300 24.1% 30.2% 7.1% 5.2% 3.8% 2.2% 1.3% 7.1% 21.2%
3 Sep CRO Demoskop 1,300 21.9% 30.5% 6.9% 5.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ? 23.3% 34.8% 7.6% 5.5% 6.9% 3.1% N/A 8.3% 10%
1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,300 23.7% 28.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 Jul Prime Minister Ivo Sanader resigns giving no specific reason. Jadranka Kosor becomes the new Prime Minister.
6 May CRO Demoskop 1,300 25.3% 28.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 30% 29.5% 7.4% 7.6% 4.1% 3.6% N/A 8.3% 9.5%
5 Mar CRO Demoskop 1,300 23% 29.5% 5.3% 5% 3.1% 3.4% N/A N/A N/A
28 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 29.3% 29% 8.1% 8% 4.8% N/A N/A 8.8% 12%
5 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,300 25% 28.3% 5.6% 5.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.3% N/A N/A
2008
Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLS Other Undecided
3-4 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,300 27.7% 29.2% 5.3% 5% 2.2% 4.2% 1.3% 6.7% N/A
31 Jul-1 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,300 31.8% 31.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,300 32.9% 31.9% 5.4% 5.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 May CRO Demoskop 1,300 33.7% 31.5% 5.4% 5.2% N/A 1.8% N/A N/A N/A
4 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,300 35.6% 33.8% 5.4% 4.1% 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 Jan The sixth assembly of Parliament is constituted.
7 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,300 34.7% 33.1% 5.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 1.6% N/A N/A
2007
Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLS Other Undecided
25 Nov 2007 parliamentary election 2,519,560 36.6% 31.2% 6.8% 6.5%* 4.1%* 3.5% 6.5%* 10.7% N/A

*HSS and HSLS contested the election together, with HSS being the senior partner. HSU contested the election with another smaller party.

Seat projections

The seat projections do not include:

  • the 8 seats from minority voters, and these representatives are not usually strictly aligned with mainstream parties
  • the 3 seats from voters residing abroad, which have in every election since independence gone to HDZ

The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

Coalition rating

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ-HSS Kukuriku Other
7 December 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 2,619 41 85 14
25 November 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 49 80 11

Party rating

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HDSSB IDS HSU HSP HSLS Other
7 Dec 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 4,000 42 69 9 4 4 2 2 4 2 2
25 Nov 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 50 68 8 2 3 4 1 1 1 2

References


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