Western Australian state election, 2013


Western Australian state election, 2013
Next Western Australian state election
Western Australia
2008 ←
9 March 2013

  Colin Barnett (formal) crop.jpg Replace this image male.svg
Leader Colin Barnett Eric Ripper
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since 6 August 2008 (2008-08-06) 23 September 2008 (2008-09-23)
Leader's seat Cottesloe Belmont
Last election 24 seats 28 seats
Seats needed increase6 increase2
2PP @ 2008 51.85% 48.15%
2PP polling 57% 43%
PP polling 56% 22%



Incumbent Premier

Colin Barnett
Liberal

The next state election in Western Australia will be held on 9 March 2013. All 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council will be contested.

Contents

Date of election

At previous elections the government was able to decide the date of the election, however on 3 November 2011 the government introduced fixed four-year terms.[1][2]

Seats held

Lower house

At the previous election, Labor won 28 seats, the Liberals won 24 seats, the Nationals won four seats, with three seats won by independents. Three changes have occurred since; the Greens won the seat of Fremantle off Labor at the 2009 by-election, Vince Catania in the seat of North West defected from Labor to the Nationals in July 2009,[3] and Fremantle MP Adele Carles resigned from the Greens in 2010, leaving Labor with 26 seats, the Liberals with 24 seats, the Nationals with five seats, while independents hold four seats.

Upper house

At the previous election, the Liberals won 16 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, and the Greens won four seats.

Current pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Albany Peter Watson ALP 0.2%
Forrestfield Andrew Waddell ALP 0.2%
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP 0.8% v IND
Collie-Preston Mick Murray ALP 1.0%
Balcatta John Kobelke ALP 2.3%
Joondalup Tony O'Gorman ALP 3.5%
Pilbara Tom Stephens ALP 3.6%
West Swan Rita Saffioti ALP 4.4%
Gosnells Chris Tallentire ALP 5.5%
Fairly safe
Belmont Eric Ripper ALP 6.7%
Kimberley Carol Martin ALP 6.8%
Perth John Hyde ALP 7.8%
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP 8.3%
Mindarie John Quigley ALP 8.5%
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP 9.0%
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP 9.0%
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP 9.0%
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP 9.6%
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP 9.7%
Safe
Bassendean Martin Whitely ALP 10.3%
Mandurah David Templeman ALP 10.5%
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP 10.6%
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP 10.6% v GRN
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP 11.5%
Nollamara Janine Freeman ALP 12.7%
Very safe
Armadale Tony Buti ALP 20.3% v CDP
LIBERAL/NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
North West Vince Catania NAT −3.1%1
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB 0.2%
Wanneroo Paul Miles LIB 0.7%
Morley Ian Britza LIB 0.9%
Southern River Peter Abetz LIB 1.6%
Jandakot Joe Francis LIB 1.8%
Mount Lawley Michael Sutherland LIB 2.2%
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB 2.5% v IND
Moore Grant Woodhams NAT 3.1% v LIB
Swan Hills Frank Alban LIB 3.5%
Eyre Graham Jacobs LIB 3.6% v NAT
Ocean Reef Albert Jacob LIB 4.4%
Kingsley Andrea Mitchell LIB 4.5%
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB 5.2%
Darling Range Tony Simpson LIB 5.6%
Fairly safe
Kalamunda John Day LIB 6.3%
Murray-Wellington Murray Cowper LIB 8.4%
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB 8.5%
Safe
Dawesville Kim Hames LIB 11.1%
Bateman Christian Porter LIB 11.4%
Hillarys Rob Johnson LIB 11.4%
Bunbury John Castrilli LIB 11.7%
Vasse Troy Buswell LIB 13.5%
South Perth John McGrath LIB 14.3%
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB 14.5%
Blackwood-Stirling Terry Redman NAT 17.3% v LIB
Central Wheatbelt Brendon Grylls NAT 17.9% v LIB
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB 19.4%
Very safe
Wagin Terry Waldron NAT 27.1% v LIB
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Alfred Cove Janet Woollard IND 1.0% v LIB
Kalgoorlie John Bowler IND 3.6% v NAT
Fremantle Adele Carles IND 4.0% v ALP2
Churchlands Liz Constable IND 23.5% v ALP


1.^ Elected as Labor member, defected to the Nationals in July 2009, margin is ALP v NAT.
2.^ Elected as Green member, resigned from The Greens in May 2010.

Polling

Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 800–900 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3.5 percent.

Legislative Assembly opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
Lib Lab Nat Gre Oth Lib Lab
Jul–Sep 2011 42% 29% 6% 13% 10% 57% 43%
Apr–Jun 2011 43% 30% 6% 12% 9% 57% 43%
Jan–Mar 2011 43% 31% 6% 13% 7% 57% 43%
Oct–Dec 2010 42% 29% 7% 13% 9% 58% 42%
Jul–Sep 2010 41% 30% 6% 14% 9% 57% 43%
Apr–Jun 2010 38% 32% 6% 16% 8% 54% 46%
Jan–Mar 2010 40% 37% 5% 11% 7% 53% 47%
Jan–Mar 2009 42% 33% 5% 13% 7% 55% 45%
2008 election 38.4% 35.8% 4.9% 11.9% 9.0% 51.9% 48.1%
2–4 Sep 2008 37% 35% 6% 12% 10% 50% 50%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.


Better Premier ratings^
Liberal
Barnett
Labor
Ripper
Jul–Sep 2011 56% 22%
Apr–Jun 2011 58% 18%
Jan–Mar 2011 56% 17%
Oct–Dec 2010 60% 16%
Jul–Sep 2010 61% 17%
Apr–Jun 2010 60% 19%
Jan–Mar 2010 58% 19%
Jan–Mar 2009 60% 14%
2008 election
2–4 Sep 2008 35% 48%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Alan Carpenter
Satisfaction polling^
Barnett Ripper
Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Jul–Sep 2011 51% 35% 34% 43%
Apr–Jun 2011 50% 37% 33% 43%
Jan–Mar 2011 54% 33% 31% 44%
Oct–Dec 2010 55% 35% 33% 43%
Jul–Sep 2010 56% 32% 34% 42%
Apr–Jun 2010 55% 33% 36% 44%
Jan–Mar 2010 51% 34% 33% 43%
Jan–Mar 2009 56% 23% 35% 34%
2008 election
2–4 Sep 2008 40% 43% 42%1 48%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Alan Carpenter


References

External links


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