Northern Territory general election, 2012


Northern Territory general election, 2012
Northern Territory general election, 2012
Northern Territory
2008 ←
By 25 August 2012

  Replace this image male.svg Replace this image male.svg
Leader Paul Henderson Terry Mills
Party Labor Country Liberal Party
Leader since 26 November 2007 29 January 2008
Leader's seat Wanguri Blain
Last election 12 seats 12 seats
Seats needed increase1 increase1
2PP @ 2008 49.3% 50.7%




Incumbent Chief Minister

Paul Henderson
Labor

The Next Northern Territory general election will elect members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament. All 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly whose current members were elected at the 2008 election will become vacant. The Northern Territory parliament elects members through instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Contents

Parties

The Australian Labor Party, led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson, and the Country Liberal Party, led by Opposition Leader Terry Mills, are the two main parties in the Northern Territory. In the 2008 general election, of 25 seats total, Labor won 13 seats, the Liberals won 11 seats, with one seat held by independent Gerry Wood.

In October 2010, former CLP leader Jodeen Carney resigned in her seat of Araluen. A by-election was held where the CLP retained the seat, but suffered a significant swing of 6.7 against them.

Date

The Henderson Labor government introduced fixed four-year terms following the previous election. The next election is due on the fourth Saturday in August 2012.[1]

In mid-2009, Alison Anderson resigned from the Labor Party to sit as an independent member of parliament. Anderson along with the existing independent Gerry Wood signed a letter to the speaker of parliament to push sittings forward, in which the CLP leader put forth a motion of no confidence on Monday 10 August 2009, to be voted on in a few days.[2][3][4] Wood ended up voting with the government, defeating the motion of no confidence.[5]

Anderson joined the CLP in September 2011. [6]

Current pendulum

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP 1.1
Daly Robert Knight ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Johnston Chris Burns ALP 8.1
Safe
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP 10.7
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP 10.8
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP 14.0
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP 14.2
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP 14.9
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP 15.1
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP 15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy Lynne Walker ALP 24.2
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALP Unopp
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Nelson Gerry Wood IND 28.7
COUNTRY LIBERAL SEATS
Marginal
Fong Lim Dave Tollner CLP 2.1
Brennan Peter Chandler CLP 2.6
Port Darwin John Elferink CLP 2.8
Fairly safe
Sanderson Peter Styles CLP 6.4
Goyder Kezia Purick CLP 8.4
Katherine Willem W-V-Holthe CLP 8.4
Safe
Drysdale Ross Bohlin CLP 10.1
Blain Terry Mills CLP 11.6
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP 16.5
Araluen Robyn Lambley CLP 18.0
Very safe
Braitling Adam Giles CLP 20.3
MacDonnell Alison Anderson CLP Unopp


References

External links


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