- The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050
The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050
Hardcover version cover
Author(s) Joel Kotkin Country United States Language English Subject(s) Demographics of the United States Genre(s) Nonfiction Publication date 2010 Media type Print (Hardback & Paperback)
The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 is a non-fiction book by American economist and demographer Joel Kotkin. The author outlines a world in which the growing U.S. population reaches four hundred million by 2050. He argues that the U.S. will become more diverse (with a trend towards ethnic/racial mixing) and more competitive, and thus he predicts that the U.S. will experience continual economic growth that advances the populations' standard of living. Kotkin writes that the U.S. "should emerge by mid-century as the most affluent, culturally rich and successful nation in human history."
Kotkin focuses on residential patterns among Americans. Contrasting suburbs and smaller cities with large metropolises, Kotkin argues against the thesis of urban theorists such as Jane Jacobs. Kotkin writes that suburbs provide diversity and new ideas as immigrants assimilate into American society. He identifies issues with large major cities such as San Francisco, California and New York City, New York. He views those areas as caught inside "the glamorous road to decline" with less incentive for ordinary, working class Americans to stay and with social policies benefiting the upper crust.
Kotkin envisions a future of "smart sprawl" in which medium to low density suburbs without central dependence on big cities draw in increasing numbers of people. He writes, "in a dramatic change, the new suburbs will be far more diverse ethnically than those of the past".
Kotkin concludes the book by aruging:
"None of it will be easy, and certainly much can go wrong. Still we have no reason to lose faith in the possibilities of the future. For all its problems, America remains, as the journalist John Gunther suggested over sixty years ago, 'lousy with greatness.’ The elements essential to forge a successful nation of four hundred million remain very much within our reach, there for the taking."
The book is somewhat unique for the ecumenical nature of its reviews. For example, it received praise from both writers Michael Barone (generally center-right) and Alan Wolfe (generally center-left).
Journalist Joe Friesen wrote for The Globe and Mail praising the book. He wrote tongue-in-cheek that "American decline is seductive, particularly to Canadians". Friesen remarked, "when it comes to the future, the field tends to be dominated by those who preach doom and gloom... Kotkin provides a well-argued, well-researched and refreshingly calm perspective."
Anti-immigration opinion website VDARE.com published a negative review by Ellison Lodge. Lodge described Kotkin's views as "Ignorant" and "Don't Worry, Be Happy". Lodge stated that Kotkin ignored that, in Lodge's opinion, "The loss of America’s historic white majority will reduce 'social capital' and increase racial tension. And the sheer number of people will create sprawl, pollution, depletion of resources, and overcrowding of infrastructure."
Philip Langdon panned the book in the New Urban Network. He wrote, "Disseminating information that doesn’t withstand scrutiny seems to be characteristic of Kotkin". Langon argued that Kotkin cherry-picked data points to support the narrative that suburban life is superior to urban life. Langdon described the book's mission as "to disparage dense development, central cities, smart growth, and ambitious government planning."
- Demographics of the United States
- Immigration to the United States
- The Death and Life of Great American Cities
- The Ultimate Resource
- 2010 in literature
- ^ a b Friesen, Joe (April 30, 2010). "America the ideal". The Globe and Mail. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/arts/books/article1549526.ece. Retrieved April 3, 2011.
- ^ G. Pascal Zachary (February 28, 2010). "'The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050'". The San Francisco Chronicle. http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-02-28/books/17958696_1_joel-kotkin-san-francisco-america. Retrieved April 3, 2011.
- ^ a b c d Lodge, Ellison (September 24, 2010). "Joel Kotkin's Next Hundred Million: Don’t Worry, Be Happy (Or At Least Ignorant)". VDARE.com. http://www.vdare.com/lodge/100924_kotkin.htm. Retrieved April 3, 2011.
- ^ http://newurbannetwork.com/article/next-hundred-million-america-2050
Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.
См. также в других словарях:
The Church in China — The Church in China † Catholic Encyclopedia ► The Church in China Ancient Christians The introduction of Christianity into China has been ascribed not only to the Apostle of India, St. Thomas, but also to St. Bartholomew. In the… … Catholic encyclopedia
Energy policy of the United States — The energy policy of the United States is determined by federal, state and local public entities in the United States, which address issues of energy production, distribution, and consumption, such as building codes and gas mileage standards.… … Wikipedia
Demographics of the world — This article is about the demographic features of the population of the World, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.… … Wikipedia
Education in the People's Republic of China — This article is about education in the People s Republic of China. See Education in Hong Kong and Education in Macau for education in Hong Kong and Macau, respectively. For education in the Republic of China (Taiwan), see Education in the… … Wikipedia
Volkswagen Group of America — Infobox Company name = Volkswagen Group of America, Inc. Passion for Innovation Love of Motion type = Subsidiary of Volkswagen AG foundation = Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1955 founder = location = flagicon|USA Herndon, Virginia, USA locations … Wikipedia
Overpopulation — Graph of human population from 10,000 BC–2000 AD showing the unprecedented population growth since the 19th century Overpopulation is a condition where an organism s numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to… … Wikipedia
Biodiversity — Some of the biodiversity of a coral reef … Wikipedia
chronology — 3600 B.C.E. to 1700 B.C.E. Indus Valley civilization, including sites at Mohenjodaro and Harappa, prospers. Archaeo logical finds include a seal that some scholars identify as a proto Shiva. 2050 ¶ Indo Iranian people settle in Iran (Persia) and… … Encyclopedia of Hinduism
Northeast megalopolis — The Northeast megalopolis along the northern Atlantic coast of the United States The Northeast megalopolis or Boston–Washington megalopolis is the heavily urbanized area of the United States stretching from the the northern suburbs of Boston,… … Wikipedia
Germany — /jerr meuh nee/, n. a republic in central Europe: after World War II divided into four zones, British, French, U.S., and Soviet, and in 1949 into East Germany and West Germany; East and West Germany were reunited in 1990. 84,068,216; 137,852 sq.… … Universalium