Climate change in Canada

Map of Canada showing the increases in GHG emissions by province/territory in 2008, compared to the 1990 base year.

  50%+ increase

  30%-50% increase

  20%-30% increase

  10%-20% increase

  0%-10% increase

  0%-10% decrease

  Each square represents 2 tonnes CO₂ eq. per capita

In Canada mitigation of anthropogenic climate change is being addressed more seriously by the provinces than by the federal government.

Emissions

In 2000 Canada ranked ninth out of 186 countries in terms of per capita greenhouse gas emissions without taking into account land use changes. In 2005 it ranked eighth.^[1]

Canada is a large country with a low population density, so transportation – often in cold weather when fuel efficiency drops – is a big part of the economy. About 25 per cent of Canada's GHGs come from trucks, trains, airplanes and, especially, cars. Commerce, residential fuel consumption and industry (excluding oil and gas) account for 24 per cent of the total, but much of those emissions come from equipment (mining trucks, front-end loaders) that do not get recorded in the transportation ledger. Another 14 per cent come from non-energy sources. The rest come from the production and manufacture of energy and power. The following table summarizes forecast changes to annual emissions by sector in megatonnes.

Sector	2004 total	2004-2010 increase	2010-2020 increase	2020 total
Upstream oil and gas	127	7	-10	124
Upgrading and refining heavier oil	29	34	25	87
Power generation	130	1	-4	126
Industrial	106	4	8	118
Commercial and residential	83	1	13	97
Transportation	193	16	25	235
Non-energy (mostly agriculture)	108	8	11	127

As Canada creates targets for GHG reductions, policymakers will likely zero in on the three areas – transportation, electricity generation and fossil fuel production – in which the greatest reductions are possible. Together, these activities account for nearly two-thirds of Canada's greenhouse gases. Efficiencies can be found there.

According to Canada's Energy Outlook, the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) report,^[2] NRCan estimates that Canada's GHG emissions will increase by 139 million tonnes between 2004 and 2020, with more than a third of the total coming from petroleum production and refining. Upstream emissions will decline slightly, primarily from gas field depletion and from increasing production of coalbed methane, which requires less processing than conventional natural gas. Meanwhile, emissions from unconventional resources and refining will soar.^[3] However, the estimates for carbon emissions differ amongst Environment Canada, World Resources Institute and the International Energy Agency by nearly 50%. The reasons for the differences have not been determined.

Public policy

Kyoto Protocol

Main article: Canada and the Kyoto Protocol

Canada is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the Liberal government that later signed the accord took little action towards meeting Canada's greenhouse gas emission targets. Although Canada committed itself to a 6% reduction below the 1990 levels for the 2008-2012 as a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, the country has not yet implemented a plan to reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Soon after the 2006 federal election, the new minority government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that Canada could and would not meet Canada's commitments. The House of Commons passed several opposition-sponsored bills calling for government plans for the implementation of emission reduction measures.

Canadian and North American environmental groups feel that Canada lacks credibility on environmental policy and regularly criticizes Canada in international venues. In the last few months of 2009, Canada's attitude was criticized at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) conference,^[4] at the Commonwealth summit,^[5] and the Copenhagen conference.^[6]

Legislation

See also: Politics of Canada

• Climate Change Action Plan 2001

Lobbying

The Canadian Wildlife Federation (CWF), one of the largest conservation organisations in the country, takes an active stance in lobbying on mitigation of global warming. According to CWF the organisation recognised the need for action in 1977.^[7] It had published Checkerspot, a now discontinued biannual climate change magazine.

Climate change by province

While the federal government was slow to develop a monitoring and credible reduction regime, several provincial governments have established substantial programs to reduce emissions on their respective territories. British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec have joined the Western Climate Initiative^[8], a group of 7 states of the Western United States whose aim is to establish a common framework to establish a carbon credit market. These provinces have also made commitments regarding the reduction and announced concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Reduction programs in other provinces, especially in Alberta, are much less developed, according to the environmental think tank, the Pembina Institute, who stresses that "Alberta's targets are dangerously weak and out of step with the large majority of jurisdictions in the industrialized world."^[9]

Canada's two largest provinces, Ontario and Quebec, are wary of federal policies shifting the burden of greenhouse reductions on them in order to give Alberta and Saskatchewan more room to further develop their tar sands reserves, therefore chilling relations between the 13 provinces and territories.^[10]

Alberta

In Alberta there has been a trend of high summer temperatures and low summer precipitation. This has led much of Alberta to face drought conditions.^[11] Drought conditions are negatively impacting on the agriculture sector of this province, mainly the cattle ranching area.^[12] When there is a drought there is a shortage of feed for cattle (hay, grain). With the shortage on crops ranchers are forced to purchase the feed at the increased prices while they can. For those who cannot afford to pay top money for feed are forced to sell their herds.^[13][14]

During the drought of 2002, Ontario had a good season and produced enough crops to send a vast amount of hay to those hit the hardest in Alberta. However this is not something that can be expected every time there is a drought in the prairie provinces.^[15] This causes a great deficit in income for many as they are buying heads of cattle for high prices and selling them for very low prices.^[16] By looking at historical forecasts, there is a strong indication that there is no true way to estimate or to know the amount of rain to expect for the upcoming growing season. This does not allow for the agricultural sector to plan accordingly.^[17]

British Columbia

Ontario

As Canada's most populated province, Ontario produces more anthropogenic greenhouse gases than any other province. Ontario's Nanticoke coal fired thermal power plant is believed to be the largest single source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in North America. The Ontario government has proposed aggressive climate change policies. The province released a climate change action plan in June 2007, pledging a 6% reduction in emissions by 2014, 15% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. To achieve these objectives, the province directed provincially-owned Ontario Power Generation to phase out coal-fired power generation (originally in 2009, then 2011 and now promised by 2014), the legislature has passed a cap-and-trade legislation and the government has announced a C$ 11.5 billion Move Ontario 2020 plan to improve transit in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton areas.^[18] The Ontario government canceled the installation of emissions scrubbers to reduce the releases of sulphur and nitrogen oxides, mercury and particulates in 2005 since the power plants were to be shut down in 2009 (now potentially in 2014).

Quebec

Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 3.8% in Quebec between 1990 and 2007, to 85.7 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent. At 11.1 tonnes per capita, Quebec's emissions are well below the Canadian average (22.1 tonnes) and accounted for 11.6% of Canada's total in 2007.^[19]

The latest data confirm a strong trend towards declining emissions in the industrial and residential sectors, which decreased by 23.6% and 27.9% respectively and a sharp rise in transportation (+29.5%) and in the tertiary sector (+53.2%). Emissions in the electricity sector have also spiked in 2007, due to the operation of the TransCanada Energy combined cycle gas turbine in Becancour. The generating station, Quebec's largest source of greenhouse gas emissions that year, released 1,687,314 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2007^[20] or 72.1% of all emissions from the sector and 2% of total emissions. The plant was closed in 2008^[21] in 2009^[22] and in 2010.^[23]

Between 1990 — the reference year of the Kyoto Protocol — and 2006, Quebec's population grew by 9.2% and Quebec's GDP of 41.3%. The emission intensity relative to GDP declined from 28.1% during this period, dropping from 4,500 to 3,300 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per million dollars of gross domestic product (GDP).^[24]

In May 2009, Quebec became the first juridsiction in the Americas to impose an emissions cap after the Quebec National Assembly passed a bill capping emissions from certain sectors. The move was coordinated with a similar policy in the neighboring province of Ontario and reflects the commitment of both provinces as members of the Western Climate Initiative.^[25]

On November 23, 2009, the Quebec government pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below the 1990 base year level by 2020, a goal similar to that adopted by the European Union. The government intends to achieve its target by promoting public transit, electric vehicles and intermodal freight transport. The plan also calls for the increased use of wood as a building material, energy recovery from biomass, and a land use planning reform.^[26] According to simulations conducted with Quebec's Ministry of Finance econometric model, the reduction goal should impact the province's real GDP by 0.16% in 2020.^[27]

Statistics

Greenhouse gases emissions from energy uses in Canada, 1990-2008^[28]

	in kt CO2 equivalent								Change 1990-2008 (%)	Share in 2008 (%)
	1990	1995	2000	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Electricity and Heat Generation	95,500	101,000	132,000	127,000	125,000	117,000	125,000	119,000	24.6%	16.2%
Fossil Fuel Industries	51,000	54,000	66,000	72,000	66,000	66,000	70,000	68,000	33.3%	9.3%
Mining & Oil and Gas Extraction	6,190	7,840	10,400	14,900	15,600	16,800	23,200	23,900	286.1%	3.3%
Industrial Combustion	55,000	53,300	53,400	51,500	47,600	47,000	49,400	43,400	21.1%	5.9%
Residential	43,000	45,000	45,000	43,000	42,000	40,000	44,000	43,000	0 %	5.9%
Commercial & Institutional	25,700	28,900	33,100	37,700	36,700	33,400	34,900	34,900	35.8%	4.8%
Transport	145,000	159,000	178,000	188,000	192,000	191,000	199,000	198,000	36.6%	27.0%
Fugitives Sources	42,700	57,000	64,700	65,600	64,700	65,800	64,700	63,800	49.4%	8.7%
Energy Uses	469,000	510,000	587,000	603,000	593,000	581,000	614,000	597,000	27.3%	81.3%
Non-energy Sources	123,000	131,000	130,000	138,000	138,000	137,000	136,000	137,000	11.4%	18.7%
Total	592,000	641,000	717,000	741,000	731,000	718,000	750,000	734,000	24.0%	100.0%

Greenhouse gases emissions by Canadian province/territory, 1990-2008^[28]

	in kt CO2 equivalent								Change 1990-2008 (%)	Share in 2008 (%)
	1990	1995	2000	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Newfoundland and Labrador	9,450	8,250	8,720	10,100	10,100	9,530	10,700	10,100	6.9%	1.4%
Prince Edward Island	1,980	1,880	2,200	2,290	2,230	2,110	2,070	1,970	0.5%	0.3%
Nova Scotia	19,000	18,600	20,900	22,800	21,800	20,100	20,700	20,900	10.0%	2.9%
New Brunswick	15,900	16,800	19,900	21,300	21,000	18,700	19,100	18,000	13.2%	2.5%
Quebec	82,800	79,400	82,300	89,100	85,400	83,800	86,800	82,000	1.0%	11.2%
Ontario	176,000	174,000	200,000	199,000	200,000	192,000	200,000	190,000	8.0%	26.0%
Manitoba	18,600	19,800	21,200	21,400	21,000	21,100	21,700	21,900	17.7%	3.0%
Saskatchewan	43,400	59,100	66,500	71,700	72,300	71,300	74,000	75,000	72.8%	10.3%
Alberta	171,000	200,000	226,000	234,000	231,000	234,000	246,000	244,000	42.7%	33.4%
British Columbia	49,300	57,500	61,600	64,600	62,100	61,100	64,500	65,100	32.0%	8.9%
Territories	2,031	2,438	2,054	2,090	1,946	1,784	2,267	2,161	6.4%	0.3%
Canada[note 1]	589,461	635,330	709,320	738,380	728,876	715,524	747,837	731,131	24.0%	100%

See also

• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
• List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita
• List of countries by ratio of GDP to carbon dioxide emissions
• Regional effects of global warming

Notes and references

Notes

1. ^ Some emissions are only reported at the national level.

References

1. ^ "WRI Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (registration required to access data)". http://cait.wri.org/. 
2. ^ Canada's Energy Outlook: The Reference Case 2006
3. ^ Beyond Bali
4. ^ Cheadle, Bruce (November 14, 2009). "Harper Criticized On Climate Change At APEC Summit". Canadian Press (Toronto: CITY-TV). http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/international/article/63318--harper-criticized-on-climate-change-at-apec-summit. Retrieved 2009-12-18. 
5. ^ Carrington, Damian (November 26, 2009). "Scientists target Canada over climate change". The Guardian (London). http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/26/canada-criticised-over-climate-change. Retrieved 2009-12-18. 
6. ^ Cryderman, Kelly (December 6, 2009). "Canada has target on its back headed into Copenhagen summit". Canwest News Service (Global TV). http://news.globaltv.com/technology/Canada+target+back+headed+into+Copenhagen+summit/2309960/story.html. Retrieved 2009-12-18. 
7. ^ http://www.cwf-fcf.org/en/what-we-do/issues/issues-of-concern/climate-change/policy.html
8. ^ Western Climate Initiative (2009). "Partner Climate Action Plans". http://www.westernclimateinitiative.org/wci-partners/climate-action-plans. Retrieved 2009-12-16. ^{[dead link]}
9. ^ The Pembina Institute (August 2009) (pdf). Highlights of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plans. Ottawa. http://pubs.pembina.org/reports/highlights-of-provincial-greenhouse-gas-reduction-plans.pdf. Retrieved 2009-12-19. 
10. ^ Woods, Allan (December 15, 2009). "Ontario and Quebec fear chill over climate pact". Toronto Star (Toronto). http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/environment/copenhagensummit/article/738400--ontario-and-quebec-fear-chill-over-climate-pact. Retrieved 2010-01-01. 
11. ^ "Alberta Environment: Alberta River Basins Precipitation Maps". Environment.alberta.ca. http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/data/precipmaps/oct2009/pastprecipmaps.html. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
12. ^ "Agriculture Drought Risk Management Plan for Alberta - Strategic Plan". .agric.gov.ab.ca. http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/ppe3883. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
13. ^ "CBC News - Calgary - Alberta ranchers forced to sell herds". Cbc.ca. 2009-08-18. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2009/08/17/ranchers-selling-herds-drought.html. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
14. ^ "CBC News - Canada - Drought forcing Alberta ranchers to sell off cattle". Cbc.ca. 2002-07-09. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2002/07/09/auction020709.html. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
15. ^ "CBC News - Canada - Ontario hay arrives in drought-stricken Alberta". Cbc.ca. 2002-08-07. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2002/08/05/hay_wainwright020805.html. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
16. ^ "CBC News - Edmonton - Alberta county declares 'state of agricultural disaster' over drought". Cbc.ca. 2009-06-17. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/edmonton/story/2009/06/17/edmonton-drought-state-of-agricultural-disaster.html. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
17. ^ "The Atlas of Canada - Precipitation". Atlas.nrcan.gc.ca. 2004-07-27. http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/archives/5thedition/environment/climate/mcr4145?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1000&mode=navigator&upperleftx=0&upperlefty=0&lowerrightx=4736&lowerrighty=5328&mag=0.0625. Retrieved 2009-11-21. 
18. ^ Government of Ontario (December 8, 2009). "Our Climate Change Action Plan". Toronto: Ministry of the Environment. http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/en/air/climatechange/ourplan.php. Retrieved 2010-01-01. 
19. ^ Environment Canada (April 17, 2009). National Inventory Report Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada 1990–2007. UNFCCC. p. 519. http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/application/zip/can_2009_nir_17apr.zip. 
20. ^ Environnement Canada. "Search Facility Data - Results". Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting on Greenhouse Gases. http://www.ec.gc.ca/pdb/ghg/onlinedata/table_e.cfm?sortC=total_emission_eq&sortD=DESC&year=2007&gasorcas=gas&gas=A&cas=A&fac_name=&npri_id=&c_local=P&prov=11&city=169&postal=&naics=A. Retrieved 2010-01-01. 
21. ^ Baril, Hélène (December 4, 2007). "Ratés dans la stratégie énergétique du Québec" (in French). La Presse. http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/ecolastie/200901/06/01-689478-rates-dans-la-strategie-energetique-du-quebec.php. Retrieved 2009-05-13. ^{[dead link]}
22. ^ Couture, Pierre (July 25, 2008). "Bécancour : Hydro-Québec devra verser près de 200 M$" (in French). Le Soleil. http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/ecolastie/200901/06/01-688822-becancour-hydro-quebec-devra-verser-pres-de-200-m.php. Retrieved 2009-05-13. ^{[dead link]}
23. ^ Couture, Pierre (July 10, 2009). "Hydro-Québec versera 250 millions $ à TransCanada Energy" (in French). Le Soleil. http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/affaires/actualite-ecolastique/200907/09/01-882848-hydro-quebec-versera-250-millions-a-transcanada-energy.php. Retrieved 2009-12-19. 
24. ^ Government of Quebec (November 2008). "Inventaire québécois des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en 2006 et évolution depuis 1990" (in French) (pdf). Ministère du Développement durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs. p. 5. http://www.mddep.gouv.qc.ca/changements/ges/2006/inventaire2006.pdf. Retrieved 2009-05-15. 
25. ^ Francoeur, Louis-Gilles (May 12, 2009). "Le Québec et l'Ontario tiendront un registre conjoint des émissions de GES" (in French). Le Devoir (Montreal): p. 1. http://www.ledevoir.com/2009/05/12/249992.html. Retrieved 2009-05-12. 
26. ^ Francoeur, Louis-Gilles (November 24, 2009). "Climat: le Québec vise haut" (in French). Le Devoir (Montreal): p. 1. http://www.ledevoir.com/environnement/actualites-sur-l-environnement/277871/climat-le-quebec-vise-haut. Retrieved 2009-11-26. .
27. ^ Government of Quebec (October 2009) (in French) (pdf). Quelle cible de réduction d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre à l'horizon 2020?. Quebec City: Ministère du Développement durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs du Québec. p. 31. ISBN 978-2-550-57204-6. http://www.mddep.gouv.qc.ca/chang-clim/2005-2020/Brochure-Changement-Climatique_LOW.pdf. 
28. ^ ^{a b} Environment Canada (15 April 2010). National Inventory Report Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada 1990–2008 (3 volumes). UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/application/zip/can_2010_nir_15apr.zip. 

External links

• Canada's Action on Climate Change - Government of Canada
• Environment Canada - Climate Change page
• Canadian Wildlife Federation - Climate change page

News

• Leahy, Stephen (2010-03-18). "Canadian government 'hiding truth about climate change', report claims". Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/18/climate-change-canada. Retrieved 26 March 2010.