J. Scott Armstrong

Infobox_Scientist
name = J. Scott Armstrong


image_width = 120px
caption =
birth_date = Birth date and age|1937|3|26|mf=y
birth_place =
death_date =
death_place =
residence = U.S.
nationality = American
field = Marketing
work_institution = The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
alma_mater = MIT
Carnegie Mellon
Lehigh University
doctoral_advisor =
doctoral_students =
prizes =
religion =
footnotes =

J. Scott Armstrong (born March 26, 1937), Ph.D., is Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, where he has been since 1968. Armstrong is involved with forecasting methods, survey research, educational methods, social responsibility, personnel selection, and scientific peer review. His visiting appointments have included positions at the University of Otago [ [http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/Marketing/people/vsp.html University of Otago Visiting Scholar Programme] ] and Manchester Business School.

Education

As indicated on [http://www.jscottarmstrong.com his homepage] , Armstrong received his B.A. in applied science (1959) and his B.S. in industrial engineering (1960) from Lehigh University. In 1965, he received his M.S. in industrial administration from Carnegie-Mellon University. He received his Ph.D. in management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1968.

Forecasting

In 2003, Armstrong gave a BBC Radio interview, discussing his investigations of forecasting as it applies to the "War on Terror". According to Armstrong, "experts" on a subject are no better at making predictions on "interp|for example, will the war in Iraq reduce terrorism in the future, or will it increase it?", than unaided college students. Armstrong and associate Kesten Green's research into what they term "simulated interaction" (i.e. role-playing) and "structured analogies" allowed them to make better forecasts. [http://mktg-sun.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/Armstrong/Mass%20Media/BBC%202003.pdf]

* Armstrong has made contributions to rule-based forecasting, conflict simulated interaction, structured analogies, decomposition by causal forces, auditing procedures for forecasting, and relative absolute error (See #Links to Full-Text Papers).

* He was a founder and editor of the " [http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 Journal of Forecasting] " (see Journal of Forecasting, 1,1982, p. 1-2), and a founder of the " [http://www.forecasters.org/ijf/ International Journal of Forecasting] ", and the [http://www.forecasters.org/isf/ International Symposium on Forecasting] . He is the author of " [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Long-Range%20Forecasting/contents.html Long-Range Forecasting] ". His 2001 book, "Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners" and the web site he founded, [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com forecastingprinciples.com] , discuss forecasting methods.

* Armstrong has applied his findings about [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Combining.pdf combining forecasts] to [http://www.politicalforecasting.com/ political forecasting] . It provided an accurate forecast of the 2004 U.S. presidential election, data and methods available online at [http://www.pollyvote.com PollyVote.com] .

* Armstrong examined the methods used by the IPCC to make "projections." He claims that the IPCC and climate scientists have completely ignored the scientific literature on forecasting principles found in the academic journals Armstrong co-founded. [http://forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf] [http://ff.org/images/stories/sciencecenter/armstrong_presentation.pdf] Armstrong wrote: ::"We also examined the 535 references in Chapter 9. Of these, 17 had titles that suggested the article might be concerned at least in part with forecasting methods. When we inspected the 17 articles, we found that none of them referred to the scientific literature on forecasting methods.::"It is difficult to understand how scientific forecasting could be conducted without reference to the research literature on how to make forecasts. One would expect to see empirical justification for the forecasting methods that were used. We concluded that climate forecasts are informed by the modelers’ experience and by their models—but that they are unaided by the application of forecasting principles." (page 1015) [http://forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf]

* Armstrong also extended a $20,000 Global Warming Challenge to Al Gore in June 2007, in the style of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. As of October 2007, Gore has ignored the challenge. Armstrong's blog, [http://theclimatebet.com theclimatebet.com] has chronicled the challenge. Climate scientist and global warming bettor [http://www.nature.com/search/executeSearch?sp-q=james+annan+sceptic&sp-c=10&sp-x-9=cat&sp-s=date&sp-q-9=NATURE&submit=go&sp-a=sp1001702d&sp-sfvl-field=subject%7Cujournal&sp-x-1=ujournal&sp-p-1=phrase&sp-p=all] James Annan has described the terms of the challenge as "the most obvious and trivial trick". [http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2007/06/more-on-20000-bet.html]

Books

* "Long-Range Forecasting" (ISBN 978-0-47-103002-7): out of print, full text available at [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Long-Range%20Forecasting/contents.html ForecastingPrinciples.com]

* "Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners" (ISBN 978-0-79-237930-0)

* "Advertising and the Science of Persuasion" forthcoming 2008, Palgrave Macmillan

Academic Websites

* [http://www.advertisingprinciples.com AdvertisingPrinciples.com] – provides useful knowledge about persuasion through advertising as a set of evidence-based principles. The principles draw upon typical practice, expert opinion, factual evidence, and empirical studies. : For this site, Armstrong received the [http://taste.merlot.org/2004awards.html MERLOT Award for Exemplary Online Learning Resources] as "Best Internet Site in Business Education" for 2004.
* [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com ForecastingPrinciples.com] – resources on forecasting.
* [http://www.pollyvote.com PollyVote.com] – resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events.

Video presentations

* [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGyzMk_9Lr8&eurl= Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part I]
* [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t46Ikg5PueU&feature=related Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part II]
* [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFpquT8fjcY&feature=related Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part III]

In the news

* Armstrong, J. Scott. [http://www.upenn.edu/almanac/volumes/v51/n15/tatl-jsa.html "Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?"] , "University of Pennsylvania Alamanac", December 14, 2004. Accessed May 10, 2007.
* Kranish, Michael. [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/Armstrong/Mass%20Media/BostonGlobe-FlawsinPeerReview.pdf "Flaws are found in validating medical studies"] , "Boston Globe", August 15, 2005. Accessed May 10, 2007.
* Surowiecki, James. [http://kestencgreen.com/the-new-yorker_surowiecki.pdf "In Praise of Third Place"] , "The New Yorker", December 4, 2006. Accessed May 10, 2007.
* Hume, Brit. [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,287045,00.html "One Expert Is Willing to Bet Money Al Gore Is Wrong About Global Warming"] , "FOX News" June 27, 2007. Accessed June 27, 2007.
* Hume, Brit. [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,288492,00.html "Is Al Gore Willing to Put His Money Where His Mouth Is?"] , "FOX News" July 6, 2007. Accessed July 9, 2007.
* Duffy, Michael. [http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a-chorus-of-thousands-does-not-justify-climate-change-prophecies/2007/07/06/1183351452273.html "Chorus does not justify climate prophecies"] , "Sydney Morning Herald", July 7, 2007. Accessed July 9, 2007.

Papers

Forecasting

* Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong (1992), " [http://MKTG-Sun.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/paperpdf/Rule-based%20Forecasting%20Development%20and%20Validation.pdf Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations] ", "Management Science", 38 (10), 1394-1414.

* J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, J. Thomas Yokum (2005), " [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Decomposition%20by%20Causal%20Forces.pdf Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series] ", "International Journal of Forecasting", 21, 25-36.

* J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy (1992), " [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/armstrong-errormeasures-empirical.pdf Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons] ", "International Journal of Forecasting", 8, 69-80.

Marketing

* J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton (1977), " [http://MKTG-Sun.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/paperpdf/Estimating%20Nonresponse%20Bias.pdf Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys] ", "Journal of Marketing Research 14", 396-402.

* J. Scott Armstrong (1991), " [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Prediction%20of%20Consumer%20Behavior.pdf Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices] ", "Journal of Consumer Research", 18 (September), 251-256.

Education

* J. Scott Armstrong, Tad Sperry (1994), " [http://MKTG-Sun.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/paperpdf/Business%20School%20Prestige.pdf Business School Prestige - Research versus Teaching] ", "Interfaces", 24 (2), 13-43.

cientific Methods

* J. Scott Armstrong, Robert J. Brodie, Andrew G. Parsons (2001), " [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Hypotheses%20in%20Marketing%20Science.pdf Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit] ", "Marketing Letters", 12 (2),171-187.

* J. Scott Armstrong, Ruth A. Pagell (2003), " [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/barriers.pdf Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project] ", "Interfaces", 33 (6), 89-111.

* J. Scott Armstrong (1980), " [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/barriers.pdf Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige] ", "Interfaces", 10, 2 (April), 80-86.

trategic Planning

* J. Scott Armstrong (1982), " [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/valueofformalplanning.pdf The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: Review of Empirical Research] ", "Strategic Management Journal", 3, 197-211.

* J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green (2007), " [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/compet.pdf Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share] ", "International Journal of Business", 12 (2007), 117-136.

References