Wishful thinking

Wishful thinking

Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality or reality. Studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes (see valence effect).

Donald Lambro described wishful thinking in terms of

“the fantasy cycle” ... a pattern that recurs in personal lives, in politics, in history – and in storytelling. When we embark on a course of action which is unconsciously driven by wishful thinking, all may seem to go well for a time, in what may be called the “dream stage”. But because this make-believe can never be reconciled with reality, it leads to a “frustration stage” as things start to go wrong, prompting a more determined effort to keep the fantasy in being. As reality presses in, it leads to a “nightmare stage” as everything goes wrong, culminating in an “explosion into reality”, when the fantasy finally falls apart.[1]

Contents

Notable examples

Prominent examples of wishful thinking include:

As a logical fallacy

In addition to being a cognitive bias and a poor way of making decisions, wishful thinking is commonly held to be a specific logical fallacy in an argument when it is assumed that because we wish something to be true or false that it is actually true or false. This fallacy has the form "I wish that P is true/false, therefore P is true/false."[3] Wishful thinking, if this were true, would underlie appeals to emotion, and would also be a red herring.

The charge of "wishful thinking" itself can be a form of circumstantial ad hominem argument, even a Bulverism.

Wishful thinking may cause blindness to unintended consequences.

Related fallacies are the negative proof and argument from ignorance fallacies ("It hasn't been proven false, so it must be true." and vice versa). For instance, a believer in UFOs may accept that most UFO photos are faked, but claim that the ones that haven't been debunked must be considered genuine.

Methods to eliminate wishful thinking

Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce the effects of wishful thinking in decision making.[4]

Reverse wishful thinking

Reverse wishful thinking is where someone assumes that because something is bad it is likely to happen. This may be to fulfill a prediction made by the speaker or because they are generally pessimistic. Notable here is the (occationalistic) and folksy 'Murphy's law'.

See also

References

Further reading

External links


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Look at other dictionaries:

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  • wishful thinking — n [U] when you believe that what you want to happen will happen, when in fact it is not possible ▪ I think she rather likes me. But maybe that s just wishful thinking …   Dictionary of contemporary English

  • wishful thinking —     Wishful thinking means believing that something that you want to happen is really happening or will happen, even though it is neither true nor likely.     I think his health is improving a little, but perhaps that s just wishful thinking on… …   English Idioms & idiomatic expressions

  • wishful thinking — n. thinking in which one consciously or unconsciously interprets facts in terms of what one would like to believe wishful thinker n …   English World dictionary

  • wishful thinking — thinking or talking about something that you would very much like to happen although you know it probably will not happen. Do you think you might be in line for promotion, then? No, it s just wishful thinking …   New idioms dictionary

  • wishful thinking — noun the illusion that what you wish for is actually true (Freq. 2) • Hypernyms: ↑illusion, ↑fantasy, ↑phantasy, ↑fancy * * * noun 1. : illusory attribution of actuality to what one wishes to be or become true and discovery of justifications for… …   Useful english dictionary

  • wishful thinking — N UNCOUNT If you say that an idea, wish, or hope is wishful thinking, you mean that it has failed to come true or is unlikely to come true. It is wishful thinking to expect deeper change under his leadership …   English dictionary

  • wishful thinking — wish|ful think|ing [ ,wıʃfəl θıŋkıŋ ] noun uncount a belief that something that you want to be true is true: She was sure he d forgiven her or was that just wishful thinking? …   Usage of the words and phrases in modern English

  • wishful thinking — believing it is true because you wish it was true    Roy says that he is going to marry Dawn, but it s wishful thinking …   English idioms

  • wishful thinking — UK [ˌwɪʃf(ə)l ˈθɪŋkɪŋ] / US [ˌwɪʃfəl ˈθɪŋkɪŋ] noun [uncountable] a belief that something that you want to be true is true She was sure he d forgiven her – or was that just wishful thinking? …   English dictionary

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